Early autumn might be in the air

Our weather pattern finally changed as temperatures cooled way down and we also picked up some much-needed rainfall. In fact, record rains fell early Sunday across parts of the Inland Empire, especially in North Idaho. We finally broke the streak of five months with below-normal rainfall as Cliff measured over a month’s rain over the weekend in Coeur d’Alene.

The normal August moisture in Coeur d’Alene is .92 inches, but the recent storm pushed our monthly precipitation total to 1.32 inches. However, the Spokane International Airport only received .04 inches of rain over the weekend. Their monthly total is .13 inches, compared to their normal of .59 inches. What a difference nearly 40 miles will make.

As Cliff and I have mentioned for a long time, our weather cycles of a particular pattern will last approximately six weeks. From late June through the middle of August, conditions were very hot and very dry. In fact, according to his records, that six-week period was the hottest and driest in recorded history in Coeur d’Alene.

Despite the recent improvement to our weather, there was still a lot of smoke and haze across the region. Wildfires continue to rage out of control across much of the West as the “megadrought” pattern shows no sign of letting up. In fact, some officials are saying that wildfires in California may last until December.

For the rest of the month, it looks drier than normal. Temperatures should warm up into early September with highs in the 80s. There may be at least a few more days with highs in the 90s.

Fortunately, we’ve likely seen the last of the extremely hot days in the Inland Northwest. Since June 1, there have been 44 days with high temperatures at or above the 90-degree mark, with seven days hitting triple digits in Coeur d’Alene.

Thanks to the big cool down, this summer will probably not be the hottest one in recorded history, but we’ll likely be in the top five, maybe the top three.

It seems that we’ve also been in a pattern of “early.” For example, the last two years, we’ve had early snows in October with measurable and record snowfall in September 2019. This summer was one of the earliest and hottest in history.

Although the first day of fall isn't officially until Sept. 22, Cliff and I are predicting this autumn to also begin earlier than usual. We’re already seeing indications with the recent cooler-than-normal weather.

LONGER-RANGE FORECAST

Much of California and the southwestern U.S. will likely see more drier-than-normal weather, at least through the first part of the winter season.

As of the middle of August, sea-surface temperatures along the Equatorial regions in the south-central Pacific Ocean are near to below normal. Therefore, we are currently in a “La Nada,” the in-between warmer El Nino and cooler La Nina sea-surface temperature pattern.

Many forecasters are predicting the possible return to the cooler La Nina event by late this year and expect it to continue through early 2022.

This is not good news for much of California and the southwestern U.S. The big rains to these regions often come from the warmer El Nino as the sub-tropical jet stream intensifies during the winter season.

It’s been so dry in the Southwest that the U.S. government, for the first time in history, declared a water shortage along the Colorado River and Lake Mead. The Colorado River feeds into Lake Mead and flows from the river have been reduced around 20 percent since the beginning of this century.

The states of Arizona, Nevada and places into Mexico will see reduced water deliveries in early 2022 as the elevation of Lake Mead is expected to drop below record low levels. This reservoir delivers water to over 40 million people and will likely be less than 40 percent of capacity by the end of this year.

Lake Powell, the second-largest reservoir of the Colorado River, has dropped to near 30 percent of capacity. Approximately 90 percent of the water from the Colorado River is relied upon by the residents of Las Vegas. It’s over 80 percent for many communities in the desert regions of Arizona and over 60 percent for Southern California residents.

The farming communities of Arizona will be the ones that experience the biggest cuts of water. Many fields are now likely to go unplanted because there will not be enough water to sustain the crops. There are no current plans to cut back on California’s water supply, but that could change very quickly.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com