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How dry we are, how warm we’ll be

| April 18, 2020 1:13 AM

We’re currently in a drier-than-normal weather pattern across the Inland Northwest. For April, precipitation totals are barely over a half inch in Coeur d’Alene. Our monthly normal is 1.77 inches, so it now appears that our precipitation total for April will end up below normal.

Despite the below-average rainfall prediction, we should see some moisture around the new moon lunar phase that begins on Wednesday. There’s only a slight chance that the air could be cold enough to produce a few snowflakes in the lower elevations before April comes to an end.

We do see more moisture around the early to mid portion of May. Conditions will likely turn drier than normal toward the middle of next month. Our summer season is still expected to be similar to last year in terms of moisture, but compared to the summer of 2019, temperatures are expected to be warmer in 2020 with a few days challenging the 100-degree mark.

The warming and cooling of sea-surface temperatures plays a big role for our long-range weather forecasts. Our snowfall will end with a total around a normal 70 inches at Cliff’s station in northwestern Coeur d’Alene. If ocean waters were cooler, it’s quite possible that we could have seen snowfall totals challenging the 100-inch mark. However, with the warmer ocean waters, much of the moisture that did fall during the winter season came in the form of rain in the lower elevations.

The latest data shows sea-surface temperatures along the equatorial regions continue to warm up across much of the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is also a large pool of warm sea-surface temperatures near the International Date Line. The warming of ocean waters extends along the equatorial regions and back toward the South American coastline.

Since last year, it’s been the case of “back and forth” with the warming and cooling of sea-surface temperatures. Based on the current data, we are currently in-between the cooler La Nina and warmer El Nino event, which we often call a “La Nada.”

Earlier in the year, the trends were pointing toward a new El Nino later this year. However, most of the computer forecasts are indicating that sea-surface temperatures will remain in a “neutral,” or La Nada pattern into the fall season. Then, there is a chance, according to other computer models, that we will cool down and move toward a new La Nina.

Trying to figure out whether ocean waters will warm up or cool down is not an exact science. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, predictions made at this time of year tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year.

In the Arctic region, ocean waters have cooled to near-normal levels after being well above average in the mid to late 2010s. In fact, there have been some new areas of slightly cooler-than-average ocean temperatures. During the last decade, Arctic ice was melting at a record rate. And, a new study indicates that the Greenland Ice Sheet could be melting at a record rate.

Weather patterns are still reflecting the “back and forth” pattern, especially in the U.S., with cold weather to the far north and rain and thunderstorms to the south. The southern U.S. is already experiencing flooding and severe weather, which may be an indication of the current sea-surface temperature pattern.

Last weekend was one of the worst Easter outbreaks of tornadoes in U.S. history. The long-range computer models are continuing to show more rain, thunderstorms and severe weather across the soggy southern portions of the country.

We’re also expecting to see an above-normal tropical storm and hurricane season as ocean waters off the coast of Africa are also warmer than normal, where many of the systems originate. The warm waters also extend to the U.S. East Coast, which would likely enhance some of these tropical systems. Many of the other hurricane forecasters are also indicating an above-normal season. I’ll have more on this next week.

Sunspot activity remains very low to almost non-existent, and this pattern is expected to continue into 2021. Then, solar storms should start to increase as we head toward a new solar “maxima” cycle around the mid-2020s. If ocean temperatures turn much cooler late this year, then there is a chance we could have above-normal snowfalls across the Inland Northwest during the winter of 2020-21.

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Contact Randy Mann at randy@longrangeweather.com