Expert: Idaho unemployment might be near rock bottom

COEUR d’ALENE — Coeur d’Alene added 300 jobs in August, according to the Idaho Department of Labor. The department also reported that unemployment declined statewide in August to 2.8 percent.

University of Idaho associate clinical professor of economics Steven Peterson noted that Idaho’s unemployment rate of 2.8 percent “is the lowest unemployment in Idaho since the BLS dataset began tracking in the 1970s.”

It’s a sharp contrast to the historic high of 10.2 percent in December 1982, he said.

Peterson pointed to job creation in Idaho’s most populous counties as the driver for the state’s low unemployment rate.

“Ada and Kootenai counties alone created a cumulative 57,143 covered jobs from 2010 to 2017, which are key job growth leaders in Idaho,” Peterson said.

But he also added: “This high level of employment and low unemployment rate may not be sustainable in the long run. The U.S. and Idaho economies are nearing the peak of the business cycle and some of the statistics in the press release reflect peak business cycle adjustments.”

According to the state report, Idaho experienced losses of 2,300 jobs in fields such as leisure and hospitality. Idaho’s labor force participation also declined by one-tenth of a percentage point to 63.7 percent, added the report.

Coeur d’Alene Chamber of Commerce CEO Steve Wilson attributed some of the job losses in hospitality to voluntary resignations toward the end of the local tourist season.

“My experience in the hospitality industry suggests that there are many service workers who abruptly leave in August after earning ‘good money’ in the summer, return early to school or take a break prior to returning to school,” Wilson said. “Many of these signed on to stay longer but then leave for the reasons stated before or to position themselves in other southern resort communities or West Coast cities hoping to earn ‘good money’ through the winter months.

“As you know, August is still a peak season month for the hospitality industry, which creates some significant issues for the employers. This is hard to capture in the season adjustment formulas.”