Beware the statistical path to good jobs

“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

Oh, those statistics.

Statistically speaking, most people would tell you there’s a 100 percent chance that famous quote came from the venerable Mark Twain. They would be wrong.

Twain popularized the quote, but readily admitted it came from British Prime Minister Benjamin Disreaeli.

A little closer to home and the present day, The Press sidestepped a statistical entanglement last week. The newspaper received a detailed report on the fastest growing jobs in Idaho from a website billing itself as “the career expert site.” In fairness to the website, its focus was on industries with more than 1,000 workers, and its data allegedly came from two government sources: the federal Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Yes, there’s that word again: Statistics. It should be accompanied always with a warning siren.

The website reported the 10 fastest growing jobs in Idaho are:

1. Web Developers

2. Hairdressers, Hairstylists, and Cosmetologists

3. Home Health Aides

4. Software Developers, Applications

5. Nonfarm Animal Caretakers

6. Self-Enrichment Education Teachers

7. Market Research Analysts and Marketing Specialists

8. Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installers

9. Real Estate Sales Agents

10. Agricultural Equipment Operators

Rather than publish that list, Press special assignment reporter Steve Cameron sought to verify the data first. We’re glad he did. Interviewing job data cruncher Sam Wolkenhauer of the Idaho Department of Labor, Cameron learned those hot jobs bore only a modest resemblance to what local experts see roaring down the employment highway. Here and everywhere else, software/web developers are going to be in great demand. So are specialists in the broad medical field. Hairdressers, animal caretakers, ceiling tile installers and farm equipment operators? Hmmmm.

Our point is twofold. First and foremost for Idahoans, many of the best jobs tomorrow will stem from STEM: Science, Technology, Engineering and Math training. If you know someone who’s preparing for the future, point him or her in that bountiful direction.

Secondly but significantly is a friendly reminder to exhibit healthy skepticism when you see polls or reports based on statistical “evidence.” We’re 100 percent sure they’re not always right.