CLIMATE: Deeper questions

We hear it over and over, like a protest chant. Some version of “The science is settled, 97 percent of scientists agree that climate change is man’s fault.” But is it? Do 97 percent of ALL scientists agree? Can science, which is a process, even be “settled?”

The 97 percent claim’s origin is a 2008 survey conducted for the University of Illinois by associate professor Peter Doran. The “Doran Survey” was sent to 10,256 Earth scientists, of which 3,146 responded. Doran then picked just 77 “experts” of whom 75 agreed with the following two questions:

1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?

2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

Question No. 1 really isn’t a question at all because the Earth is known to experience periodic climate fluctuations. We know that there is a mini ice age every 1,500 years. One likely caused the collapse of the Egyptian Old Kingdom — 4,200 years ago.

Question No. 2 hinges on the word “significant.” To the non-scientist significant means major or primary. However, to the scientist “significant” simply means measurable. You have one choice, if something is insignificant then it cannot be measured and everything else is significant, measurable.

Does human activity have a tiny but measurable effect? Probably. Is human carbon emission THE cause of rapid climate change? That question wasn’t even asked.

BRENT REGAN

Coeur d’Alene