Economy will roar - or not

In the eyes of people who voted for Donald Trump, the economic future of the U.S., Idaho and Coeur d’Alene could hardly look brighter.

Even some of Trump’s detractors have noticed favorably the sustained stock market increases over the past month and other signals that might portend removal of the governor on America’s economic engine. For 90 consecutive months, the U.S. economy has grown — an accomplishment that even President Obama’s detractors should acknowledge — but the big, lumbering vehicle hasn’t exactly shed its training wheels. So where does that leave us? Somewhere between excitement and uncertainty.

Widely respected economist John Mitchell regaled a Chamber of Commerce audience Wednesday with statistics and anecdotes. Summarizing spreadsheets worth of data, Mitchell thinks 2017 is shaping up as a pretty good economic year for the Coeur d’Alene area, but he emphasizes that until Trump’s sound bites become actual policies, nobody really knows what lies ahead.

Will promises of serious infrastructure spending translate into shovel-ready projects and creation of more good jobs? Will meaningful tax reform occur? Will regulations some businesses say stifle growth be relaxed? What will immigration policy eventually look like? How will Obamacare change? Will the new administration embrace protectionism and seriously limit trade? These are questions nobody can answer now, but the decisions will have an impact on virtually every aspect of the local and national economy.

Understanding these answers are presently unknowable, North Idaho Business Journal has tapped some local business minds about what might await in 2017. Leaders from manufacturing, employment, tourism and more weigh in on possible effects, both good and bad, the new administration could create. The publication will be inserted in the Dec. 20 Coeur d’Alene Press and Post Falls Press, and extra copies will be distributed throughout the region.

If you’re looking for pinpoint projections anywhere, you’re not likely to find them. As Mitchell pointed out, investing in infrastructure sounds great, but where will the construction workers come from? The construction industry is short of workers already. Further, the allure of deporting millions of undocumented immigrants might lose a little of its luster when you consider an estimated 10 to 15 percent of the nation’s construction workforce is comprised of illegal immigrants. Get rid of them and suddenly, the possibility of getting any massive new infrastructure program going shrinks further.

That’s a fine example of why people are excited — and very, very uncertain.