And the next president of the U.S. is ...
We are either blessed or cursed right now, depending on your point of view, with the most unpredictable presidential election in at least 100 years. I am a political junkie who grew up in a family of Democrats. My father was chairman of the Democratic Party in Otero County, New Mexico, in the mid 1950s. I walked door-to-door campaigning for Kennedy at 10 years old in 1960. I am a registered Republican now, but I still vote for the person, not the party, and I think most Americans do the same, so I watch both major party primaries with fascination. I don't know who will be the Democratic or Republican candidate in November 2016. I like Donald Trump, but in the end I think a calmer point of view will prevail. (I could be wrong.)
What I can say for sure is that the Democrat will have the clear advantage. When we look at the electoral red, blue and purple map, it's clear that if the Democratic nominee in 2016 wins all of the light blue and blue states, he or she will start out with 257 of the 270 electoral college votes needed for victory. Assuming no third-party candidate participates, any Republican would have to win the red states, the pink states, and four of the five purple states to win, no matter what. If the Democrats nominate a solid candidate without much baggage and he or she makes few mistakes during the campaign during the last four weeks when most Americans finally tune in, a Republican victory is a real long shot. Remember, we aren't discussing who can win in Idaho or in the red states, but who can win in the purple or light blue states, and the electoral college.
With the map as it stands, and a national press that will most likely do everything it can to ensure a Democrat victory, what Republican could pull it off? Let me make the case for one scenario that could lead to a Republican victory. Republicans seem to be a feast or famine party, in that so few qualified candidates ran in 2008 and 2012, while 17 qualified people have filed candidacies this year. There might be more than one ticket that could lead to victory, but please think about this one, and why it makes sense.
Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida lost a lot of tea party support, which had carried him to victory over Charlie Crist in 2010, when he authored a comprehensive immigration bill earlier this year. But, he is a dynamite communicator with a lot of charm and charisma, perhaps similar to a one-term senator from Illinois in 2008. He still has a solid conservative record, and I think he will be a viable candidate with some longevity in the race on his own. But in the end, I think Republicans and Americans, for that matter, will be looking for someone with the real experience to lead and govern, so I don't think he can be the nominee at the top of the ticket. But as a V.P., he could be a great asset, because he could be a key to winning his home state with its 29 electoral votes.
And the top spot? I see a guy with a lot of vision and a long, successful record in Gov. John Kasich of Ohio. He spent almost two decades in the House of Representatives, and served as chairman of the Armed Services Committee. He is a bona-fide expert in foreign policy and on the military. Kasich co-authored the last balanced budget and was a key player in getting it passed by Congress and signed by President Clinton, which ushered in a decade of prosperity in this country. He left Congress voluntarily in 2000.
After eight years in the private sector working for Lehman Brothers, he ran against incumbent Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland in 2008. (No, he didn't cause the failure of the investment bank nor did he create the financial crisis of 2008. He worked in a two-person office in Columbus, Ohio, as one of 700 managing directors, He wasn't trading residential mortgage-back securities, and Democratic attempts to demonize him as a Wall street tycoon failed twice.)
Kasich won that election with 54 percent of the vote. He inherited 10.2 percent unemployment and an $8 billion deficit. By implementing tax cuts and by creating a privatized, economic development office, unemployment has dropped to 5.3 percent, and Ohio now has a $2 billion surplus. Kasich won re-election in 2012 by a staggering 64 percent to 33 percent margin, and he still enjoys high public opinion polls in Ohio today.
I believe a Kasich-Rubio ticket could pull off victory in Ohio and Florida, and might even be able to win Wisconsin and/or Iowa, as well. Virginia is solid purple and President Obama has been popular there, so it could go either way, but Rubio could help win more Hispanic votes in Colorado and Nevada, sealing a Republican victory. However, if the Ds hold all their blue states and win Virginia with its 13 electoral votes, they have 270 on the nose, so this could be another national election where no one knows who the winner is for days or weeks.
When I listen to any of the Democrat or other Republican candidates, the two guys I can really see who believe in themselves and what they are saying, and who believe in the promise of America, are Kasich and Rubio. I think they would restore our underfunded military and lead the free world from the front instead of behind. I think they would have the will to balance the budget and employ fiscal discipline, and I believe they would even have the courage to reform entitlements. I don't know that anyone can fix Obamacare, but I think they would propose fair and reasonable alternatives. Then, it would be up to Congress, especially the Senate, which is likely to be very close to a 50-50 split. This will mean any legislation that passes will have to get some bipartisan support for the next two years.
So, when Fox News hosts the first Republican debate this Thursday night in, you guessed it, Cleveland, Ohio, listen to these two guys, whether you are an "R" or a "D," and see what you think.
Jim Hightower is a Coeur d'Alene resident and business owner.