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Looking ahead to a warm spring, summer

| March 24, 2014 9:00 PM

Several Press subscribers asked me in recent days to detail our North Idaho weather prospects for the upcoming spring and summer months beginning on April 1 and ending on Sept. 30, 2014.

According to climate scientists around the world, we may see a weak 'El Nino' sea-surface temperature event later this year that could produce much-needed rains in drought-parched California and the Desert Southwest by this November or December.

In the meantime, however, we are still in the in-between 'La Nada' phase as far as sea surface ocean water temperatures are concerned, so California should stay drier and warmer than usual, at least through October. The 2014 forest fire season throughout the southwestern U.S. could eventually become "catastrophic," according to the U.S. Forest Service officials and others watching the extremely arid weather.

The severe drought in the Southwest has already pushed eastward into the Midwest corn and soybean belt and the winter wheat regions of the central and southern Great Plains. Wheat, oats and soybean prices have 'skyrocketed' on the Chicago Board of Trade as well as in Minneapolis, Kansas City and other market places. In the past month or so, wheat futures have rallied more than $2-a-bushel. Soybeans appear headed to my long-predicted target of $15-a-bushel. Oats hit $6-a-bushel, an all-time high price, on Friday, March 14. Corn is likewise beginning to rally as the drought conditions worsen.

Our weather, as California stays warm and dry under high pressure, in North Idaho and surrounding areas of the so-called 'Inland Empire' should remain both wetter and a bit cooler than normal through the spring months just prior to another hot, dry summer season in 2014, much like what we've seen in the past several years.

Here are my predictions on a month-by-month basis between April 1 and Sept. 30:

Our normal April precipitation, since the inception of local weather records in 1895, has been 1.77 inches with a scant 0.7 of an inch of snow during the 30-day span.

Our record April rainfall was 4.41 inches in 1937. The least precipitation ever gauged was 0.23 inches in 1977. Our heaviest April snows occurred in 1920, when 8.2 inches of the white stuff was measured.

This April should see approximately 2.30 inches of precipitation in Coeur d'Alene with the higher amounts likely to the north and east of us. I don't see more than an inch or two of wet snow and most of that should fall above 2,800 feet. There will be at least three thunderstorms this April.

Temperatures this April should average about 2 degrees below normal despite occasional periods of milder than normal weather, especially late in the month.

Our average precipitation during May since 1895 in Coeur d'Alene has been 2.37 inches. Our greatest amount of rain occurred in May 1957, which gauged a whopping 6.43 inches. The heaviest May snowfall in the past 119 years was exactly 2 inches in 1950 on my birthday, May 6.

This May should be slightly cooler and a bit wetter than usual with approximately 2.70 inches in town. I don't see any measurable snowfall this May, except above 4000 feet in the mountains to the north and east.

There will be several thunderstorms observed in our part of the country this May, some with hail and strong winds that may topple trees and signs.

Our warmest afternoon this May should occur around or during the full moon cycle of the 14th through the 21st.

We usually measure 1.93 inches of rainfall each June in town. Our wettest June was in 2012, when we gauged 5.84 inches while on our way to an all-time record wet year with an incredible 43.27 inches of precipitation.

This June, I'm predicting that we will measure approximately 2.38 inches of rain on Player Drive, where my station has been located for the last decade. There will be at least eight days this June with thunderstorm activity. Most of these storms will have pea-sized hail and strong winds that likely will bring down trees and damage signs.

The warmest afternoon readings this June will likely occur late in the month. It's possible that our first 90-degee plus 'Sholeh' temperatures of the summer season will occur sometime between June 23 and June 30. At the other extreme end weatherwise this June, we could see damaging late-season freezes, mostly in the outlying areas, during the early June 'new moon' phase.

Our average July precipitation, during what is normally our driest month of the entire year, has been just 0.92 inches since 1895. This July, I'm predicting only 0.73 inches of rain, 0.19 inches below normal. There will be only a couple of thunderstorms in the region this July. In 1948, we had our wettest July with 3.69 inches of rain.

Our temperatures this July should be slightly warmer than usual. There should be at least 12 days with afternoon highs at or above 90 degrees. There is a chance that one or two afternoons, for the first time since 2009, may top the century mark in Coeur d'Alene. Last year, in 2013, we had our hottest day of the entire summer on July 2, when the mercury topped out at 99 degrees.

August

Our average rainfall during the month of August since 1895 in Coeur d'Alene has been 1.23 inches. This August, I'm expecting less than an inch of total precipitation in town, mostly resulting from scattered afternoon or early evening thunderstorms. It should likewise be dry and warm, but not exceedingly hot, for this year's edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo in late August.

The hottest weather, just under the century mark, this August should occur sometime during the 'full moon' cycle of the 10th through the 17th. There should be at least 13 afternoons with temperatures at or above 'Sholeh' levels of 90 degrees plus. By the way, our wettest August occurred in 1926 with 3.66 inches of rain during the 31-day period.

September

Our average September rainfall since 1895 has been 1.48 inches, but we've tended to be both warmer and drier than usual during the past several Septembers. This year should follow that drier trend with only 0.89 inches of moisture expected locally during the 30-day span thanks to a stubborn ridge of high pressure. Our wettest September was 6.29 inches of rain in 1927.

Temperatures will be very warm at first this September. A couple of additional 90 degree afternoons will push our 'Sholeh Days' total to near 30 for the 2014 season. I don't see any early killer frosts this September, but we may have to cover some sensitive plants like tomatoes during the last week of the month.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com