A moist 'summer monsoon' headed toward Arizona
Several Press subscribers with relatives in the Desert Southwest have asked me in the past week or so whether or not there will be an all-important 'summer monsoon' season this year in Arizona and neighboring states.
My answer to this question is YES! There will be a juicy summer monsoon in Arizona and elsewhere in 2014. I can already see showers and thunderstorms developing on the near-term meteorological horizon. This should likewise assist weary Arizona firefighters by next week.
Typically, the annual monsoon season arrives between the 7th and the 10th of July, and this year's event should be pretty much "on time."
Usually, the monsoon season provides about 45 percent of an entire year's precipitation in the Phoenix area. Southeastern Arizona normally receives as much as 75 percent of its annual rainfall in the two-month span from early-to-mid July through early-to-mid September.
The earliest summer monsoon to ever hit the Phoenix area arrived on June 16, 1952. The latest monsoon was delayed to July 25, 1987. Again, the average arrival date is today, July 7, and thunderstorms are in the forecast.
A period of heavy monsoonal precipitation, called by locals "a burst," occurs when thunderstorms push northward from Mexico into the Desert Southwest on the eastern side of the Pacific High Pressure area that keeps California 'bone dry' during a normal summer season into at least October. This is why we don't see any hope of significant drought relief in the Golden State until at least November or December, if then. Stay tuned.
NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS
Wednesday afternoon saw North Idaho's first widespread 90-degree readings of the 2014 summer season despite Coeur d'Alene's 89.2 degrees. Fernan Lake, Spirit Lake and Harrison each topped out at 92 degrees. It was 91 degrees at Post Falls and Hayden. Athol and Rathdrum both reported 90 degrees.
The 4th of July weekend was due to see mostly clear skies and afternoon highs in the mid 80s. The lower 90s were expected to return by early in the week. High pressure will continue to provide more sunshine across the Inland Northwest. A brief overnight thunderstorm did produce 0.05 inches of precipitation at my station on Player Drive early Thursday. July is normally the driest month of the entire year with an average of just 0.92 inches of moisture since 1895.
Unlike the parching 500-year mega drought still crippling agriculture in California in early July, we are in pretty good shape moisturewise in North Idaho following one of the wettest Junes on record in the region. We measured 4.60 inches of rain this past June, compared to the 119-year average since 1895 of 1.93 inches.
We had three record rainfalls during June of 2014 in town. A severe thunderstorm dumped 1.08 inches on June 3 on Player Drive that resulted in minor flooding. Another storm produced 1.11 inches on June 17. The thunderstorms overnight on June 27-28 dumped another 1.19 inches of rain on the city. June was a cooler than normal month averaging 60.5 degrees, two degrees below the usual 62.5 degrees.
Longer term, both Meteorologist Randy Mann and I still anticipate a warm and dry July through September across the Inland Northwest thanks to a large stationary high pressure ridge that will 'camp out' over our part of the country. We may see local readings soar to near the century mark sometime during the July 12-19 'full moon' cycle and again in early to mid August.
The weather outlook for the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo in late August still looks good, partly cloudy and warm, but not too hot.
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com