Hard September freeze could hurt crops

Corn, soybeans north of I-80 may be affected

Thanks to a strong circumpolar 'vortex' of frigid Arctic air, most areas east of the Rockies, especially the northern Great Plains and much of southern Canada, suffered through one of the coldest winter seasons since the end of the so-called 'Little Ice Age' in the 1850s.

One of our Harris-Mann farmer clients, Chris Hong of Grand Forks, N.D., had an all-time record 96 days below zero last winter. The icy region just across the Canada/U.S. border in Altone, Manitoba, observed 102 subzero days during a five-month-long winter season from early November to early April.

The spring of 2014 was likewise very cool and extremely wet east of the Missouri River. Many of our farmers couldn't plant their soybeans north of U.S. Highway 20 in Iowa, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Manitoba in southern Canada until late June or early to mid July, if then. At least 2 million acres were left fallow in the northern U.S. and south-central Canada.

While the western half of the North American continent has sweltered in the near-record heat accompanied by severe drought conditions and widespread wildfires, the eastern crop regions of the U.S. and Canada have experienced one of the coolest summers in 198 years, since the infamous "Year Without A Summer" in 1816, when frosts and freezes occurred in the northeastern U.S. and southeastern Canada during every summer month from June through September. In June of 1816, nearly a foot of snow fell at Quebec City in northeastern Canada.

During the same summer of 1816, hard freezes in Ireland and parts of northern Europe, resulting from the massive eruption in 1815 of Indonesia's Mount Tambora on Sumba Island, led to the "Great Potato Famine" and a huge Irish immigration to America.

The Tambora eruption was the largest in modern times. It sent some 36 cubic miles of particulate into the Earth's upper atmosphere. It was about 50 times more powerful than the better-known eruption of Krakatoa some 68 years later in 1883 that produced the loudest sound in history.

While the U.S.D.A. and other crop analysts have currently predicted "BUMPER U.S. CROPS" due to an unusually cool summer in 2014, I'm very concerned that a hard freeze this September could possibly, like 1974 and other years, wipe out between 15 percent and 30 percent of the corn and soybeans north of Interstate 80, particularly north of Interstate 90, into Manitoba and Ontario. Remember, we still have the chilly remnants near Canada's Hudson Bay of last winter's "Circumpolar Vortex." This is a REAL THREAT!

North Idaho weather review

The first 11 days of August averaged 96 degrees at my station on Player Drive. Monday's high of 99 degrees was only 4 degrees off the record for Aug. 11 of 103 degrees in 1986 in Coeur d'Alene. As of this Thursday, Aug. 14, writing, we've had a whopping 26 afternoons this blisteringly hot summer of 2014 with 'Sholeh' readings of 90 degrees or more. That streak included two triple-digit temperatures of 102 degrees on July 29 and 100 degrees on July 31. We should have at least 4-7 more 90 degree afternoons in town before the summer ends in late September.

Not only has it been much warmer than usual this summer, but it's been quite dry despite occasional thunderstorms. Fire danger levels remain dangerously high. As of 10 a.m. on Thursday, we had only gauged 0.34 inches of rain at my station during the first two weeks of August compared to the normal of 0.66 inches and last August's precipitation total for the period of an above normal 1.39 inches. Our normal August rainfall in Coeur d'Alene since records began on a daily basis in 1895 has been 1.23 inches, the second driest month of the year just ahead of July's puny normal of 0.92 inches.

Longer-term, Meteorologist Randy Mann and I expect continued dry conditions under high pressure for at least another month. Then, we predict that the fall of 2014 will turn wet and cool with a series of Pacific storm systems from the Gulf of Alaska.

Following some near-90 degree heat early in the week, things should cool off a bit and there will be a slight chance of scattered showers during the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo. Skies will be partly cloudy most of the event, and afternoon highs will be mostly in the upper 70s - near perfect.

I will be in the Press booth as usual on Thursday, Aug. 21, between 4 and 6 p.m. Hope to see you there.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email sfharris@roadrunner.com

Weekly Weather Almanac

• Week's warmest temperature: 99 degrees on Aug. 11

• Week's coldest temperature: 54 degrees on Aug. 14

• Weekly precipitation: 0.77 inches

• Precipitation month to date: 0.79 inches

• Normal precipitation month to date: 0.67 inches

• Precipitation month to date last year: 1.39 inches

• Precipitation year to date: 22.56 inches

• Normal precipitation year to date: 15.54 inches

• Precipitation last year to date: 16.55 inches

• Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches

• Total precipitation last year: 25.93 inches

• Precipitation predicted this year: 33.70 inches

• Wettest month on record (since 1895): 9.91 inches in December 1933

• Wettest year on record (since 1895): 43.27 inches in 2012

• Driest month on record (since 1895): 0.00 inches (14 times)

• Driest year on record (since 1895): 15.18 inches in 1929

Readings taken week ending 3 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 17