Money trumps science in latest climate study
The 2013 so-called "Landmark Climate Report" from the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was no surprise to this climatologist when it came out last Friday from Stockholm, Sweden. It's all about funding, MONEY, pure and simple.
Some 800 scientists now claim that it's "EXTREMELY LIKELY" that human activity is the 'dominate cause' of global warming, not the SUN as I claim.
In the Panel's previous assessment in 2007, the U.N.-sponsored report said that it was "VERY LIKELY" that global warming was 'man-made.'
The Panel now says that the "evidence has grown" thanks to more observations, a better understanding of the world's climate systems and improved long-term climate models to analyze the impact of rising global temperatures.
The IPCC says the "human footprint" can be found in the warming of the atmosphere and the oceans on the planet in rising sea levels, melting snow and ice and in changes of some climate extremes.
The full 2,000 page report wasn't released until this past Monday, Sept. 30. But there were, in my opinion, no real surprises. It was still the same old global warming "song and dance" routine, Man, not God, is in charge.
As expected, the IPCC raised its projections on the rise in global sea levels to 10-32 inches (26 to 82 centimeters) by the end of this century, when this climatologist will be 158 years old. The previous report in 2007 predicted a rise of 7 to 23 inches (18 to 59 centimeters).
Using four different scenarios on greenhouse gas emission controls, the Panel projected that global average temperatures would rise by just 0.3 degrees Celsius or a whopping 4.8 degrees Celsius, take your pick, by the end of the century. That's anywhere between 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit and a staggering 8.6 degrees Fahrenheit. (How's that for hedging your bets?)
As I mentioned last week, one of the most controversial subjects in the report, which was earlier 'leaked,' was how to deal with a purported 'slow-down' in the global warming trend in the past 15 years since 1998. I say that this global warming 'hiatus' certainly casts doubt on the scientific consensus on climate change. We live in a totally confused world!
As I've said for decades now, what we've been seeing worldwide for thousands of years are NATURAL climate change cycles caused by the sun's variability and other various climatological factors.
But, the polluting ways of mankind, particularly in the urban 'heat islands' of the cities, has added slightly to the long-term warming trend, especially prior to 1998. The rural areas of the planet have been 'fairly stable' temperaturewise since at least 1940.
We should likewise remember that there are definite signs that we are now heading into an extended period of global cooling. Stay tuned.
North Idaho weather review
September produced the first snowfall of the 2013-14 season atop Lookout Pass at the end of the month, a welcoming sight indeed for the ski resort. On Sept. 30, a 'rare' tornado damaged industrial buildings south of Seattle. Astoria, Ore., had its wettest month of September on record with a whopping 10.70 inches of rain that produced widespread lowland flooding. The city along the Pacific coastline more than doubled its previous record September precipitation mark of 4.30 inches in 1986.
Locally in Coeur d'Alene, September was another month of wide extremes weatherwise. The first half of September was warmer and drier than usual. The second half, however, turned wet and cool.
Our total precipitation at my station on Player Drive in northwestern Coeur d'Alene was more than double the 1.48-inch norm at a healthy 3.10 inches. Last September, by extreme contrast, we gauged a record low 'trace' of precipitation during the same 30-day span.
As far as temperatures were concerned, we had two afternoons with record highs in September. The first record daily maximum reading was also the month's warmest afternoon at 94 degrees on Sept. 12. Just three days later on Sept. 15, the mercury topped out at 93 degrees. We finished the summer season with 37 'Sholeh Days' at or above 90 degrees, 12 such days above normal. But, there wasn't a single afternoon this summer of 2013 with triple-digit readings. Our hottest afternoon all season was 99 degrees on July 2. Our last 100-degree afternoon in Coeur d'Alene occurred on Aug. 20, 2009, more than four years ago.
Our 90-day long-range weather outlook still calls for a cooler and wetter rest of the fall season into the first days of winter, which could be quite cold and snowy.
It all depends upon what happens with the extremely weak, chilly 'La Nina' in the waters of the Pacific Ocean. The latest information shows that ocean temperatures in that region are starting to warm up. If La Nina doesn't fall apart as some predict, including our own Randy Mann, then we'll see above normal snowfall at least during the first half of the winter of 2013-14. Only time will tell.
Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email [email protected]
Weekly Weather Almanac
• Week's warmest temperature: 70 degrees on Oct. 6
• Week's coldest temperature: 28 degrees on Oct. 4
• Weekly precipitation: 0.04 inches
• Precipitation month to date: 0.04 inches
• Normal precipitation month to date: 0.43 inches
• Precipitation month to date last year: trace
• Precipitation year to date: 20.24 inches
• Normal precipitation year to date: 18.01 inches
• Precipitation last year to date: 29.32 inches
• Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches
• Total precipitation last year: 43.27 inches
• Precipitation predicted this year: 28.40 inches
• Wettest month on record (since 1895): 9.91 inches in December 1933
• Record annual precipitation: 43.27 inches in 2012
• All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929
Readings taken week ending Sunday, 3 p.m., Oct. 6