Fear bigger threat than uranium

There's something anyone trying to fully analyze the situation with Iran has to understand about that government. For centuries, it has been trying to reinflate. Persians (who prefer to be identified by their cultural name to the politically chosen "Iranian") have never forgotten who they were: Leaders of modern civilization, a massive Persian empire spanning much of the continent under Alexander the Great, creators of higher mathematics and world class poetry with an intellectual bent.

Like other civilizations once dominant and now receded, it's hard for leaders to let go of the image. Words like "grandeur," "dignity," and "epic" dot the rhetoric. So despite all the chest-beating of current government officials in Iran (to be distinguished from the common people, many of whom are still enamored of the West), historically and culturally it's more posturing than actual intent to act.

Unless someone else strikes first. Then I shudder to think of the explosive results worldwide.

How can I call it mere posturing? It's happened so many times before. And despite President Ahmadinejad's and former President Rafsanjani's angry and even extreme rhetoric, they aren't as foolish as their words may imply. Each time it's come this far, they've backed down when it came to real action. Why? They know we have hundreds of warheads and that Israel, as well as other nations not far away, have scores of them too. They can do the math.

A basic element of Persian culture is a little (or a lot of) embellishment, especially when emotions are involved. Especially in an election year for both countries. Tough talk appeals to Americans, too; would we put up with other nations telling us not to arm ourselves and feel secure, regardless of justification? It's hard to put yourself in someone else's shoes in the face of fears, but nothing better aids "knowing your enemies."

Now that Iran's elections have passed (not yet fully free nor fair, and after a highly protested 2009 election), it's more likely we'll see a cooler tone from the re-elected officials. They may be too focused on inner battles with an increasingly independent parliament. Even though under Iranian revolutionary law parliament can be overruled by clerics, inch by inch Persians are pushing back against extremism. Still, it's not been their style to bring a bloody uprising; more like a persistent power struggle with the encouragement of pro-democracy expatriates in the U.S. and Europe.

Even if Iran enriches the right grade of uranium, scientists say it would take years before one weapon could result. Facts don't get in the way of perception; a 2010 CNN poll found 71 percent of Americans believe they have an arsenal. Moreover, American and Israeli weapons, foreign policy, and intelligence experts have told Congress and their national leaders (a) evidence still does not show nuclear weapons capability in Iran, and (b) they don't see an Iran-first strike scenario. Instead they've warned against pre-emptive strikes by the U.S. and her allies as a potential powder keg for a Mideast explosion. For an in-depth and wide look at this issue, see Scot Peterson's article in the Christian Science Monitor Feb. 27 (Csmonitor.com).

Yet the fear pervades and seems to be the bigger, escalating threat. In his book, "On Killing," accomplished veteran and psychologist Lt. Col. Dave Grossman initially describes man's innate resistance to taking human life. He writes that when people become angry or frightened they stop thinking with their forebrain (distinguishingly human) and start thinking with their midbrain (which is indistinguishable from the mind of an animal). They are literally "scared out of their wits."

There is no more crucial time to keep our wits. As I write this Israel's prime minister and our president meet and plan our fates. Iran's neighbor and U.S. ally Turkey has urged patience and caution, saying the time for talk is not over. If leaders decide that it is, I fear the result of a pre-emptive punch far more than any current threat.

Sholeh Patrick is a columnist for the Hagadone News Network with degrees in international relations and law who lived in Iran. Contact her at [email protected].