Illegal immigrants reach 'net zero'

The anti-immigration push seems to be working, but some think it may be working too well. Or perhaps Mexico's growth is simply more enticing. In any case, a leaner U.S. economy, angry and threatening sentiments, stricter laws, greater physical risks at the border, and better conditions back home have affected immigration from Mexico to such an extent that at least one expert says it's hit "net zero." That's no more illegal immigrants coming in than going out, for the first time since the 1960s.

One million Mexicans returned home from the U.S. between 2005 and 2010, according to the latest demographic study. That's roughly 300 percent more than in the previous five-year period. The implications for Mexico and the U.S. are big; draining a labor pool here and changing reunited family life there.

The reversing trend began as the economy shrunk, but it continues despite recovery. Even migrant seasonal workers (including those with proper visas) are returning to the U.S. less often than before. According to an April article in the Christian Science Monitor, farm owners and hotel managers are concerned. Americans aren't lining up for their vacated jobs, at least not at low wages, and they fear their businesses will suffer or cease.

Princeton sociologist Douglas Massey documented what he calls "net zero" immigration. The population of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. fell from 12 million to 11 million during the height of the economic downturn (2008-2009), but hasn't been replaced because Mexicans, who make up 60 percent of illegal immigrants, aren't migrating at rates similar to those departing. Thus he says we have a net zero balance for the first time in half a century.

Some are choosing to not return, or migrate in the first place, because the cost-benefit ratio at home has changed. Conditions are improving in Mexico. While poverty is still much higher than it is here, some towns previously without plumbing or electricity now have both. There are more jobs and fertility rates are down as women have better access to birth control. Literacy rates are much higher than before - from around 50 percent in the 1990s to 87 percent by 2010. With more kids able to attend a local school and not do homework by candlelight, families see more benefit in staying.

Back in the U.S. some employers have expressed concerns that the trend is permanent. A University of Georgia report projects a $39 million 2011 loss due to farm labor shortages, after their state passed an Arizona-style enforcement law. The government's response to the shortage is to push H-2A "guest worker" visas, but employers respond negatively, citing too much red tape and unrealistic wage requirements.

No doubt all sides will adjust. What we may need to prepare for is the irony of an adjustment that requires more food imports and other foreign dependencies as a trade-off for closed borders.

Sholeh Patrick is a columnist for the Hagadone News Network. Email [email protected].