How will bin Laden's death affect our safety?

Usama is dead. Now what? That's the million dollar question since the news broke Sunday, but the answer won't be simple. Al Qaeda and its ilk are not a unified force - not in hierarchy, methodology, nor ideology. So chopping off its figurehead provides no clear picture of what comes next.

Will there be sporadic backlashes for this killing? Likely. Will it mean better things for U.S. interests, soldiers overseas, and civilians worldwide? For the long run, undoubtedly; for the short run, maybe not. While Americans and others around the globe - and if international reports are correct, even some of his own followers - are relieved to see bin Laden go, his removal also presents opportunity. Now that the official leader is dead, the field is open both for those in Al Qaeda who want to take his place and for others who want to do things differently. That could bode badly in some locations for a while; hopefully what shakes out will provide some relief for the rest of us.

Because terrorism and revolts by definition are unofficial and generally disorganized, infighting among the various subgroups can run high. Splinter groups who align themselves with Usama bin Laden's ideologies, but who are not in contact with the centralized command directly under him, have done their own thing for years. Al Qaeda activity varies by country and by region, so how its members and the local populaces they embattle feel about this news cannot be uniform. If they know at all.

Consider a statistic that shocks most Americans. According to the feature article in the May 2 issue of the Christian Science Monitor (the most thorough journal for in-depth, unbiased international news in the U.S.), most Afghanis have no idea what happened on 9/11. The CSM reported a survey of four major Afghani provinces by the International Council on Security and Development, a London think tank. The survey concluded that in Helmand and Kandahar provinces, 92 percent "do not know about this event the foreigners call 9/11." In the smaller, northern provinces of Panjshir and Parwan (near Kabul), 65 percent did not know. Makes you wonder why they think we're there. That's hard for Americans to get our heads around. What is a fact of everyday life for us, what sent us to their country with armed aircraft and troops, is something they've not even heard of. Why haven't they? We forget that most of the world's population is still very poor and without regular, if any, access to accurate and free press, international news, or the Internet. Many who do have access, such as in China or to a lesser extent, Iran, have only government-censored access. They hear what their rulers want them to hear.

All of this tempers the temptation to celebrate this new development for long. We stepped into a very complex picture, with no easy solution. Terrorism is not a one-headed beast, but it cannot survive in healthy societies. Until the world's entire population enjoys basic freedoms in healthy economies, we'll have a long fight ahead.

Sholeh Patrick is a columnist for the Hagadone News Network with degrees in international relations and law. Email [email protected]