Sunspots could hurt communication

Weekly Weather Almanac

• Week's warmest temperature: 91 degrees on July 7

• Week's coldest temperature: 46 degrees on July 10

• Weekly precipitation: trace

• Precipitation month to date: trace

• Normal precipitation month to date: 0.32 inches

• Precipitation month to date last year: 0.58 inches

• Precipitation year to date: 21.85 inches

• Normal precipitation year to date: 13.80 inches

• Precipitation last year to date: 18.67 inches

• Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches

• Total precipitation last year: 33.15 inches

• Precipitation predicted this year: 35.19 inches

• Record annual precipitation: 38.77 inches in 1996

• All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929

Readings taken week ending Sunday, 3 p.m., July 10

The next 'maximum' solar cycle due by late 2012 or early 2013, according to new computer models, may turn out to be as much as 35 to 50 percent STRONGER than the last sunspot 'maxima' cycle in the late 1990s.

A dramatic increase in sunspot activity could lead to massive communication problems as satellites would be affected. This would undoubtedly cause interruptions in satellite TV, GPS and cell phones. Power outages would become commonplace. Power surges could hurt computers and other electronic equipment.

A 'sunspot' is a cooler and darker region on the surface of the sun, which can also produce significant distortion in planetary magnetic fields like we've seen in recent months - affecting air travel and bird migration patterns.

The sun can 'blast' billions of metric tons of plasma toward the earth at speeds as high as a million miles per hour during periods of extreme high solar activity. The ozone layer of our upper atmosphere, fortunately, protects animal life, including we humans, from dangerous levels of radiation during periods of solar activity. But, always remember to use that sunscreen. Skin cancer cases are very high in the North Country.

As I've stated so often, the sun is directly responsible for producing the semi-permanent high and low barometric pressure patterns on earth so vital to annual precipitation cycles in the temperate zones, which include the U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Africa, Russia, South America and Australia. When these solar cycles change drastically, so do weather patterns around the world. Droughts, floods, wildfires, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions usually increase during the 'maxima' phase of sunspots that tends to occur about every 11.2 years, with a 'super maxima' cycle every 22.4 years like the one that should peak sometime in 2013 or slightly thereafter.

The last time we saw a 'super maxima' peak in 1989, a massive solar storm virtually shut down the power grid in northeastern Canada.

According to our resident sunspot expert, Randy Mann, solar storms have been increasing as expected in the past several months, this despite a recent decrease in activity since June 11. Within the last week, the total number of sunspots ranged between 35 and 50 each day. During the last sunspot peak in the late 1990s, by comparison, we saw between 200 and 300 sunspots on a daily basis. In the next several months, we could see as many as 300 to 400 sunspots each day. Only time will tell.

In terms of longer-term weather patterns this upcoming fall and winter period, the northern regions of the U.S. and southern Canada, beset by a series of snowy winter seasons and cool, wet planting-delayed springs since 2007, should finally see some warmer and drier conditions, especially if the increased sunspot activity combines with a new warmer 'El Nino' currently beginning to develop in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean. But, again, only time will tell.

Next week: Should we be worried about 2012?

North Idaho weather review, long term outlook

Wednesday, July 6, was our first 'Sholeh Day' at or above 90 degrees across much of North Idaho and neighboring eastern Washington of the 2011 summer season.

Spokane, Coeur d'Alene, Post Falls, Athol and Fernan Lake each hit the lows 90s. It was a toasty 98 degrees Wednesday afternoon at Pasco, Wash. One station near Pendleton, Ore., reached the century mark just ahead of a brief thunderstorm.

As of this 10 a.m. Thursday, July 7 writing, we were expecting one more afternoon near 90 degrees before a weak weather system was expected to bring much cooler temperatures to the region along with isolated showers and thunderstorms. We've been very dry since late June, far below normal in rainfall since the storms ended on June 23, as predicted would happen.

Longer-term, both Randy Mann and I are still forecasting a hotter and drier than usual mid July through mid September period locally as a strong, stationary high pressure ridge settles over the Inland Northwest.

There may be an isolated shower or thunderstorm at times, but most days will be sunny and warm, perfect for outdoor activities and quite a drastic change weatherwise from the abnormally wet and cool spring season in the region.

We still see GREAT WEATHER for this year's edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo in late August. Afternoon high temperatures should be in the mid 80s and lower 90s.

Rainfall amounts will be sparse. Any showers or thunderstorms will be mainly confined to the mountains to the north and east of Coeur d'Alene.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. Email [email protected]