Technology predictions for 2012

Dear PropellerHeads: Will the world come to an end in 2012?

A: Mmmm, this question is not really in our comfort zone, but what the heck. I can provide as good of an answer as any other so-called prognosticator. In fact, this is an appropriate time to get all Nostradamus on you and make some bold technology predictions for 2012.

Will Facebook hit one billion users? Don't they have that many already? Actually it depends on if you count registered users or active users (somebody who has logged in during the past 30 days). Facebook(www.facebook.com) quite correctly counts active users and they reached the 800 million milestone back in September.

With monthly growth rates in the 3-4 percent range, it isn't a matter of if, but when. And I don't see Google+ stemming this outrageous growth. This PropellerHead makes the audacious prediction Facebook will announce one billion active users on April Fools Day. No foolin'.

Windows 8 - Hit or Miss? Actually, whether Windows 8 comes out at all in 2012 is a bit of a prediction in itself. I think it will be ready just in time for the Christmas rush. But regardless of when, the real question is how. As in, how well will it be received? Microsoft is taking a big gamble on Windows 8 as it tries to blend desktop and mobile operating systems into one to rule them all.

My prediction is that it will be both a hit and a miss. I know, lame, but let me explain further. I feel that although it will be generally perceived as a miss by the public at large (not as bad of a miss as Vista mind you, but certainly not an outlandish success either), that there will be a lot of nifty ideas present that will pervade all future Windows releases. In other words, as Windows 95 defined the user experience for the next 17 years, Windows 8 will do the same, and in the end, we will end up liking it quite a bit.

Apple leads the way, again. The iPhone 4S was a rather mild improvement over its predecessor with one major exception. Siri, the intelligent software assistant, hit a grand slam, a hole in one and a last-second touchdown all in one. Finally, speech recognition has left the laboratory and hit the mainstream. This is one of the Holy Grail technologies that has been promised to us since the first science fiction movies came out and it can't come soon enough. Banish the keyboard and my Carpal Tunnel Syndrome!

Expect to see a lot of Siri clones popping up on the other smart phones next year, as well as the standard computing environments of your laptop and desktop. They won't be as good as Siri, but as long as they aren't called Bob, Clippy, Duke, or Mooouette they should be sufficient.

Games go Old School. It seems that video games are on a constant crusade to burn up the video cards on your computer. And while games like Star Wars: The Old Republic, Elder Scrolls V,and Battlefield 3 are visually stunning, they probably combined pale in comparison to the popularity of, say, Angry Birds. I predict games will go back to their ancestors for inspiration while still maintaining a quality, though not mind-blowing, appearance.

This trend could start with Legend of Grimrock(www.grimrock.net), a classic dungeon crawler being programmed by Almost Human Ltd. with a release date in early 2012. All of those lost hours of youth playing The Bard's Tale, Wizardry, Betrayal at Krondorand Alternate Reality are going to be added to with lost hours playing Grimrock!

And as far as the world ending in 2012? I think the Mayans thought the world would end about as much as you thought it would with Y2K.

When the PropellerHeads at Data Directions aren't busy with their IT projects, they love to answer questions on business or consumer technology. Email them to [email protected] or contact us at Data Directions Inc., 8510 Bell Creek Road, Mechanicsville, VA 23116. Visit our website at www.askthepropellerheads.com.