Predicting precip? 'Nada' exact science
Weekly Weather Almanac
• Week's warmest temperature: 90 degrees on Aug. 4
• Week's coldest temperature: 55 degrees on Aug. 3
• Weekly precipitation: 0.00 inches
• Precipitation month to date: 0.00 inches
• Normal precipitation month to date: 0.28 inches
• Precipitation month to date last year: 0.00 inches
• Precipitation year to date: 22.62 inches
• Normal precipitation year to date: 14.72 inches
• Precipitation last year to date: 18.79 inches
• Normal annual precipitation: 26.77 inches
• Total precipitation last year: 33.15 inches
• Precipitation predicted this year: 35.19 inches
• Record annual precipitation: 38.77 inches in 1996
• All-time least annual precipitation: 15.18 inches in 1929
Readings taken week ending Sunday, 3 p.m., Aug. 7
'La Nina' is dead and gone. Good riddance, I say.
As expected, we've turned much warmer and drier in recent weeks. It's been nearly a full month since we've had a decent rain across the Inland Empire, including North Idaho.
Fire danger levels have risen into the 'high' ranges in the region. Many areas have issued "burning bans." Worriesof increased forest and brush fires later this summer are widespread throughout the Inland Northwest.
Things could be worse. My farmers and ranchers in Texas, for example, are reporting "many wells and aquifers going dry, conditions more severe than during the infamous 'Dust Bowl Days' of the 1930s during the last 'Great Depression.'"
It's likely that we will see more shortages later this fall and winter of critical supplies of corn, wheat, soybeans, milo, cotton, vegetables and other crops due to irrigation systems running dry in the southwestern U.S. Livestock prices will soar following the liquidation of herds due to the lack of water and feed, especially vital grasses on the parched Plains. Some of our clients in Oklahoma and Texas haven't had even a drop of rain since last October.
Longer-term, sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial zones of the Pacific Ocean regions have been warming up to near-normal levels in the past several weeks. This means that we're currently in a 'La Nada' event, the in-between phase dividing a 'La Nina' from a warm 'El Nino.'
The current 'ENSO' (Southern Oscillation) models are forecasting the 'neutral' La Nada event to persist at least into the early winter period of late 2011 and early 2012. This should mean more snow than normal in the November through mid January time span and less snow during the second half of the season, especially if we were to see a new warmer 'El Nino' enter the weather scenario.
'La Nada' winters, in the 'neutral' phase of sea-surface temperatures, often see near-normal amounts of snowfall in our part of the country, according to the National Weather Service and my personal Coeur d'Alene weather records dating back to 1895.
Tim Martin, our capable Coeur d'Alene Street Maintenance Department Superintendent, sent me his personal 'Weather Guru's' 2011-12 winter snowfall prediction in a July 25 e-mail.
Here is 'Honest Jon Shade Tree's' 2011-12 winter forecast:
"Both the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) and the MEI (Multivariate Index) are trending towards the warmer phase for the upcoming winter of 2011-12, although the key word is 'trending.'"
If this trend continues, we could find ourselves in a mild 'El Nino' event by the mid winter months, which usually means less snow than normal, but not always.
However, if we remain in a 'neutral' La Nada phase this winter, we should see a season of 'WIDE EXTREMES' in variability - warm one week and near zero the next. La Nada winters have distinct and different 'chapters' as opposed to a steady, season-long ENSO-influenced winter like we saw two years ago in 2009-10, when we only received a puny 18.4 inches of snow the entire season.
'Honest Jon Shade Tree' Jon went on to say:
"As things now stand, I see about 70 inches of the white stuff in town this winter compared to the 117-year normal since 1895 in Coeur d'Alene of 69.8 inches. Some of this snow will come as 'unplowable slop,' very wet.
'Shade Tree' adds, "I see a so-so ski season that will start on Lookout Pass on November 18th, my forecasted opening date."
Randy Mann and I are predicting "less than 50 inches of snow" this upcoming winter of 2011-12 in the Coeur d'Alene area, approximately 25 percent below normal. We're assuming that we will be in at least a mild 'El Nino' by late December or early to mid January, hence the lower snowfall seasonal total.
It's quite likely that at least 70 percent of this winter's snow will arrive prior to Jan. 15. If we do see a new warmer 'El Nino' by mid January, the second half of the winter of 2011-12 could feature very sparse amounts of the white stuff.
But, as usual, only time will tell. Maybe 'Honest Jon Shade Tree' will be right, maybe not.
North Idaho weather review
The gardens are finally ripening in Camelot. This hot and dry weather is great for our gardens and our morales, especially after such a cold, wet spring season and a slow start to summer.
Even the blueberries and the huckleberries are starting to ripen. We're still picking raspberries weeks later than normal. But, I can't wait to dig into that delicious raspberry cobbler that Sharon made this morning. My wife is a marvelous cook!
Longer-term, weatherwise we're still expecting a sunny and warmer August, September and, probably, early October across the region. High pressure is definitely in command. A calmer 'La Nada' sea-surface temperature cycle won't end anytime soon. These are certainly days to treasure and fondly remember when we're shovelingsnow and scraping windshields a few months down the meteorologicalroadway. And, I still have my favorite time of the year to look forward to later this month ... the 2011 edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo.
The weather looks good. I enjoy talking with my fans each year in the Coeur d'Alene Press booth. See ya there!