Signs of life?

COEUR d'ALENE - When asked if the recession is over, Amanda Fisher shook her head slowly.

"Employment, for one," the Post Falls woman explained on Monday, while standing on Sherman Avenue. "My husband is in and out of work, my dad is in and out of work. My mother has been looking for work for three years."

Struggling to raise three toddlers on her Walmart salary, Fisher doesn't know what will bring the economy back.

"I think employment is the big stickler," the 26-year-old said.

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, based in Cambridge, Mass., the recession lasted 18 months, ending in June 2009.

The April-to-June quarter of 2009 marked the last quarter the economy was shrinking, the bureau reported on Monday.

Whether that's true in Kootenai County, some are unsure.

Alivia Body, regional economist with the Idaho Department of Labor, said it's difficult to assess whether the local economy is on par with national trends.

There has been economic growth in Kootenai County since the beginning of the year, she said.

"Especially in manufacturing and of course the seasonal employment," she said. "We'll probably see a decline (of those seasonal jobs) in the upcoming months."

Body pointed out that job openings in the county doubled between July and August, from 250 to 500.

Most of those were in manufacturing, she said, which she attributed to increased backlog.

"A lot of manufacturers are seeing a steady flow," Body said. "Typically they just start increasing hours, and then eventually start hiring. They're all good signs."

Todd Christensen, president and CEO of the Coeur d'Alene Chamber of Commerce, said he is cautiously optimistic that Kootenai County is in economic recovery.

"Much as it took our community (a while) to feel the recession that started in 2007, there is that lag for us to feel the recovery," he said.

Coeur d'Alene saw a more robust tourist season than last year, Christensen said. But he predicted the construction industry will continue to drag with so much housing stock still available.

He doesn't expect a double dip recession to occur here, he added, because of positive economic signs like the growth of manufacturing jobs.

"Those are things we all look to and have reassurance and confidence," Christensen said.

Empire Airlines in Hayden recently landed long-term maintenance contracts that will allow for 75 new employees, said Tim Komberec, president and CEO.

"We're feeling fairly positive about 2011," Komberec said.

The contract is the result of long-term sales efforts rather than a rebounding economy, he said.

Komberec pointed out that unemployment is still high, at 10 percent in Kootenai County this August.

He hopes to see more efforts to stimulate local businesses and attract new companies to the area.

"We've got a lot of work in front of us," he said.

Philip Duckett, COO of Buck Knives in Post Falls, also doubts the recession is over.

"There's still a lot of caution out there," Duckett said. "Companies are holding very tight inventories, they're being very guarded on sales projections."

Buck Knives, however, has grown as a result of producing more products in the U.S., he said.

"It resonates with customers," Duckett said, adding that the company has recently added 35 new employees. "I think that people need to think about buying American-made products whenever they have that opportunity. It's one of the things that will help pull us out of the recession."

Ground Force Manufacturing in Post Falls has done well thanks to seeking international customers, said President and CEO Ron Nilson.

This week, customers from Mongolia, Mexico and Canada are touring the company, he added.

"Eighty percent of business will be done out of the country," Nilson said, which has allowed the company to return to its 2008 employee level of about 75.

Other manufacturing businesses are also entering the international market, he said, or holding their own with a niche product.

But that doesn't mean the recession is over, Nilson added.

"Somebody says recession is when your neighbor loses his job, and a depression is when you lose your job," he said. "Ten percent of people are pretty depressed right now."

Bill Koll, owner of Rainbow Mountain Development, said his custom-home construction company is just as slow as it has been for the past two years.

"Very few people are looking to have homes built right now," Koll said. "Obviously it's the economy. There are no jobs. Nobody is spending any money."

He added that the sub contractors and suppliers are reporting stagnant times, as well.

"Right now the whole building industry is still very slow," Koll said. "At this point, I don't see it getting any better yet."