There's still hope for our 'green tomatoes' in the garden

With most of our 'green as grass' tomatoes still at least two to three weeks behind schedule as far as ripening is concerned, many of our subscribers have asked me lately about the chances of a KILLER-TYPE FREEZE arriving later this already chilly September of 2010. There's still HOPE, folks.

According to our Coeur d'Alene weather records dating back to 1895, there have only been 16 mornings during the entire month of September with readings of 28 degrees or colder that likely destroyed tomatoes and other tender plants in our gardens, so the 'odds' are with us.

We've had at least 45 mornings in September with light frosts, the kind one brushes off a windshield, since 1895. We could see a light frost, especially in the areas away from the warming bodies of water, so I would still cover the tomatoes at temperatures below 40 degrees just to be on the 'safe' side. However, no killer freezes are likely until at least early October, probably later.

Our coldest September morning ever observed in Coeur d'Alene was on the 24th in 1926 when the mercury dipped to a frigid 17 degrees. The second coldest September morn was the 22-degree reading the very next day on Sept. 25, 1926. There was a 'tie' for the third coldest September morning ever - 24 degrees - first set on Sept. 13, 1921 and matched 13 years later on Sept. 20, 1934 during the 'Great Depression.'

The other 12 mornings with hard freezes resulting from temperatures of 28 degrees or below occurred in 1921, 1942, 1948, 1950, 1957, 1961, 1965, 1968, 1970, 1971, 1974 and, most recently, in 1985. Since then, our coldest September temperature was 32 degrees on Sept. 24, 2005. Only light frosts were reported throughout the area.

The only measurable snow ever to fall in September since at least 1895 was an inch of the white stuff on Sept. 23, 1926. Three inches fell in upper Hayden Lake.

As far as early October freezes are concerned, there have been 28 such 'killer-type' frosts between Oct. 1 and Oct. 12, Columbus Day, since 1895.

The worst early October freezes were observed locally in Coeur d'Alene just a year ago in 2009 between Oct. 8-12. The mercury dipped in town to just 15 degrees on Columbus Day, Oct. 12, the coldest morning on record since 1895 for so early in the season. Record lows were also set last October on Oct. 10 with 19 degrees and Oct. 11 with 20 degrees. How 'short' our weather memories are.

The maximum reading last Oct. 12 was just 40 degrees, likewise a new record for the date. There was a 'trace' of snow earlier that morning.

Speaking of October snowfalls since 1895 in the Coeur d'Alene area, we've seen just 8 days during the entire 115-year period with measurable amounts of the white stuff.

The most October snowfall was the 'freak' storm of Oct. 21-22 in 1957 that dumped 6.8 inches on the Lake City. Some schools were closed by the unusual snows for the only time ever prior to Nov. 1.

Three inches of snow fell locally in town on Oct. 21, 1971. But, there were some areas to the north of Coeur d'Alene around Rathdrum, Hayden Lake and Athol with as much as 6-8 inches of the white stuff.

An inch of snow was gauged in Coeur d'Alene during the overnight hours of Oct. 17-18 in 1930. Oct. 15, 1930 also reported a half-inch of accumulation, the only October with two measurable snowfalls.

A little less than an inch of snow was measured on Oct. 25, 1925 in town. Last October, we gauged .4 inches on the 29th. There was .2 inches of snow on Oct. 29, 2006 and 0.1 inches on Halloween Day in 2003, Oct. 31.

As things now stand at 11a.m. on Thursday, Sept. 9, I do not look for any hard freezes in our part of the country for at least another two or three weeks, maybe longer. Snow is out of the question this September.

But, light frosts, the kind that one brushes off a windshield, could occur at anytime, especially with a weak series of cold fronts from the Gulf of Alaska headed our way. Will we see early snows? I doubt it. But, ANYTHING is possible weatherwise almost at ANYTIME ... practically ANYWHERE ... during this strongest cycle of WIDE WEATHER 'EXTREMES' in at least 1,000 years, since the days of Leif Ericsson, the mighty Viking Chieftain.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Following the second wettest June on record since at least 1895, a month that produced a whopping 4.63 inches of precipitation at my station on Player Drive in Coeur d'Alene, we have been very dry with variable temperatures.

September has thus far been quite cloudy and cool, but almost rainless, since the first day of the month's .15 inches. The National Weather Service keeps predicting showers that fail to materialize.

I don't see much, if any, measurable precipitation in our part of the country for at least the next 10 days, other than a sprinkle or two later next week. This is due to a high pressure ridge that will camp out over the Inland Northwest. Temperatures, however, will be turning warmer with afternoon highs in the mid-to-upper 70s likely by Sept. 13-15, almost 'Indian Summer' conditions. Morning lows will be mostly in the mid-to-upper 40s. As I said previously in the main article, no damaging frosts are yet in sight.

But, a major change weatherwise is due by the 'full moon' cycle of Sept. 23-30. A series of Pacific storm systems should push through the northwestern corner of the U.S. As much as an inch of rain may fall during the last week of September into early October, as the cool 'La Nina' sea-surface temperature event strengthens in the waters of the Pacific Ocean and the upper-level jet stream pushes south.

Longer-term, October, November, December, January and early February will likely be both cooler and wetter than usual for the late fall and early-to-mid winter period, again thanks to La Nina.

Remember, I still see at least 80 inches of snow this winter in Coeur d'Alene. More than 100 inches of the white stuff may be gauged in some of the typically snowier locations to the north of the Lake City from Rathdrum to Priest Lake.

Last winter, during the warm El Nino event, we only measured a puny 18.4 inches of snow all season. I didn't use my snowblower even once! Our normal Coeur d'Alene snowfall in an average winter since 1895 is 66.7 inches.

But, even with the new La Nina, I don't foresee the return of the all-time record snowy winters of 2007-08 and 2008-09 during the global cooling period associated with our 'Silent Sun.'

No other two winters back-to-back ever produced even close to the 318.5 inches of snow that the 2007-09 period gauged locally in town. The recent winters beat the 1915-17 seasons by more than 100 inches.

We certainly don't need more collapsed buildings.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com