The Farmers' Almanac is out, but I'm in doubt

For the 'winter haters' in the mid-Atlantic states, where the winter of 2009-10 was the snowiest on record in places like Norfolk, Virginia, Wash-ington, D.C., Baltimore, Maryland and Phila-delphia, Penn-sylvania, the Farmers' Almanac is predicting a "kinder and gentler winter" this time around in 2010-11.

The 194-year-old publication says in its 2011 edition, which went on sale on August 30, that it may still be cold but "nothing like last winter" along the East Coast southward into Florida, where iguanas froze to death and fell out of the trees. The 2010 citrus crop along with tomatoes, strawberries and assorted produce, was a "disaster" sending prices skyrocketing in the supermarkets across the country. Only Hawaii escaped the cold and snow when the other 49 states saw measurable amounts of the white stuff.

The Almanac, which claims an accuracy rating between 80 and 85 percent over the years, says that it correctly forecast the heavy snows in the Mid-Atlantic states last winter based on its "secret mathematical formula" that uses the position of the planets, the tidal actions of the moon and sunspot activity.

I agree with Ed O'Lenic of the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center when he calls the Almanac's meteorological methods "a bunch of hooey."

O'Lenic says, "In science you have to have to 'open mind.' Someday, someone could discover some useful data, but, for the time being, we have to stick with what produces results for us."

For the record, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center anticipates a "warmer than normal winter" for the Mid-Atlantic regions and the Southeast, including Florida. NOAA is predicting a "colder and snowier winter than usual" for our part of the country, the Inland Northwest. That puts it at odds with the Farmers' Almanac, which calls for milder than normal conditions in the Northwest.

As things now stand in early September, I tend to go along with NOAA's predictions, especially considering the fact that our new colder than normal sea-surface temperature event - La Nina - is continuing to strengthen in the waters of the Pacific Ocean.

We usually are warmer than normal with far less than usual winter snowfall during a warm El Nino like we saw in 2009-10. Last winter, we only gauged a puny 18.4 inches during the entire season. I never used my snowblower even once! Our normal seasonal July 1 through June 30 snowfall since 1895 in Coeur d'Alene has been 66.7 inches.

But, during the last La Nina event between early 2007 and early 2009, we measured an all-time record 172.9 inches in 2007-08 and a whopping 145.6 inches in 2008-09. That gave us an incredible 318.5 inches of the white stuff in the two-year period, more than 100 inches above the previous 24-month mark of 217.6 inches of snow measured between 1915 and 1917, nearly a century ago.

My prediction for total snowfall this fast-approaching winter of 2010-11 across North Idaho and the rest of the Inland Empire calls for approximately 15 to 30 percent more snowfall than usual for the season. This would mean somewhere between 75 and 80 inches of the white stuff in Coeur d'Alene this winter, much above last year's total, but far below either 2007-08 or 2008-09 when we likewise saw a 'silent sun.'

I will update this winter outlook by mid-October. I'm carefully watching Randy Mann's sea-surface temperature charts as well as the ever-changing sunspot data. Remember, winter 'fun' depends on alot on the 'sun,' in more ways than 'one.' I'm 'done'...at least for now.

NORTH IDAHO WEATHER REVIEW AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS

Since the recent cooler cycle began in 2007, we've seen a trend toward less summer heat across the Inland Empire, including North Idaho. Our sun remains quite 'inactive.'

We're still picking raspberries and blueberries in the garden. Our enormous cherry tomato plants, 5-foot-by-5-foot each, still have hundreds of green tomatoes. We have to walk through cherries on the sidewalk when taking Sholeh and Genny for walks each morning, mighty strange indeed for early September.

July and August were each about 1.5 degrees below normal, almost carbon copies of one another. Both months had average highs of 82 degrees and lows of 53 degrees. July's precipitation was .70 inches compared with the normal since 1895 of .96 inches. August's rainfall was .68 inches, .59 inches less than the normal of 1.27 inches. The 2010 edition of the North Idaho Fair and Rodeo was rainless this time around, no mud.

July's highest reading was 95 degrees on the 26th. There were seven hot 'Sholeh Days' in July and six such days in August, including the summer's warmest afternoon, when the mercury hit 96 degrees on Aug. 17. Aug. 30 had the summer's chilliest morning with 39 degrees in town and some light frosts reported at the higher elevations to the north and east of Coeur d'Alene.

September started off with temperatures averaging nearly 10 degrees below normal. It was a frigid 40 degrees earlier this morning, Sept. 2, as I wrote this article.

The rest of the month will see generally cooler and bit wetter than normal conditions, thanks again to La Nina's developing strength in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean.

Remember to cover those unripened tomatoes and other sensitive plants on the chilly nights. As the days progress toward October, the chances of frost, especially in the colder areas away from the warming bodies of water, will increase.

It's possible by late October, shortly before Halloween, that we will see our first snowflakes of the 2010-11 season. Stay tuned.

Cliff Harris is a climatologist who writes a weekly column for The Press. His opinions are his own. E-mail sfharris@roadrunner.com