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Oscar ceremony Sunday, predictions now

by Tyler Wilson
| March 4, 2010 8:00 PM

Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin host the (something annual) Academy Awards at 5 p.m. Sunday on ABC. It will be a big test for the industry's most celebrated award show.

Some see the 10-nominee Best Picture race as detrimental to the Academy's reputation as supreme authority on quality filmmaking, while others believe the stuffed category could boost ratings for the fledgling ceremony telecast.

Those are discussions for other days. For now, let's focus on the big night: Who will win, and perhaps more importantly, who should win. On with the predictions!

Best Picture

The most heated battle of the night comes down to mega-blockbuster "Avatar" and the low-budget war drama "The Hurt Locker." The two films couldn't be any more different. One is good, and the other is an overblown rip-off of "Pocahontas" with cool special effects.

Although "Avatar" won Best Picture at the Golden Globes (a.k.a. the pointless award ceremony), "Hurt Locker" has dominated most of the other precursor awards, including the Director's Guild and Producer's Guild. Still, "Avatar" has a ton of support within the industry.

The wild card to watch will be "Inglourious Basterds." Because of this year's preferential balloting system (we are so not getting into it here), "Basterds" may have more No. 2-4 votes than the far more divisive "Avatar," which helps boost its final tally. "Basterds" seems to be respected in a lot of different circles, and the Screen Actor's Guild awarded it its highest honor.

Prediction: "The Hurt Locker" squeaks it out.

Should Win: "The Hurt Locker." Even though I ranked both "Up" and "Inglourious Basterds" higher on my personal Best of the Year list, I'd like to see the $12 million-grossing war movie beat that overrated monster known as "Avatar." My personal ballot ranking: 1. "The Hurt Locker" 2. "Up" 3. "Inglourious Basterds" 4. "Up in the Air" 5. "District 9" 6. "An Education" 7. "A Serious Man" 8. "Precious" 9. "The Blind Side" 10. "Avatar"

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges should have no problem taking home the gold in this category for his stellar work as a worn-down country singer in "Crazy Heart." He should have won an Oscar years ago. Should and Will Win: Bridges

Best Actress

This category could be a tight race between Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side" and Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia." The best performer in the bunch is Carey Mulligan of "An Education," but she doesn't have a shot in heck. Bullock seems to have the most momentum at the moment. Prediction: Bullock.

Best Supporting Actor

Easy one. Christoph Waltz of "Inglourious Basterds" had this award in the bag way back in August. Should and will win: Waltz.

Best Supporting Actress

Another easy one. Mo'Nique probably earned 90 percent of the vote for her unforgettable performance in "Precious." Should and will win: Mo'Nique.

Best Director

Once again, this is a battle between "Hurt Locker" and "Avatar," even though James Cameron himself admitted he'd rather see ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow win for her Iraq war drama. She'd be the first female Best Director Oscar winner, and it's a good bet she makes the history books. Should and will win: Bigelow.

Best Original Screenplay

This could be close. A "Hurt Locker" sweep would mean screenwriter Mark Boal beats out some rather stiff competition. I say the Academy still wants to award Quentin Tarantino for his bold rewriting of history in "Inglourious Basterds." Should and will win: That weirdo film geek, Tarantino.

Best Adapted Screenplay

In December, before "Avatar" broke records and people finally remembered "The Hurt Locker," Jason Reitman's "Up in the Air" had all the Oscar momentum. Now it will have to settle for a Screenplay win here. Should and will win: Reitman and Sheldon Turner, "Up in the Air"

Best Animated Feature

Considering Disney/Pixar's "Up" made it into the Best Picture category, you would think it had enough support to win this category by a mile. Still, there's a lot of love for "Fantastic Mr. Fox," and some voters might be stupid enough to vote for "Up" in Best Picture and not here. Should and will win: "Up."

Best Foreign Language Film

Voters never seem to go for the obvious choice here, so frontrunner "The White Ribbon" from Germany could get upstaged by one of the lesser-known selections. Don't know which one, so I'll pick the safe bet. Prediction: "White Ribbon."

Best Documentary Feature

It probably comes down to "Food Inc." and "The Cove," two of my favorite movies from last year. I won't mind either way, but dolphin expose "The Cove" won more precursors on the awards circuit. Prediction: "The Cove."

Best Editing

The movie that wins this category almost always wins Best Picture. Go Figure. Prediction: "Hurt Locker." Should win: "Inglourious Basterds"

Best Cinematography

Unless voters don't consider the digital artistry of "Avatar" to be true cinematography, the Oscar should go to the most gorgeous film in the bunch. Watch out for "Hurt Locker" or "The White Ribbon" as spoilers. Should and will win: "Avatar"

Best Art Direction

Should and will win: "Avatar." Because it's pretty.

Best Costume Design

Voters love big Victorian-era dresses, so "The Young Victoria" looks to be the winner here. "Coco Before Chanel" could be an alternate if you feel like being risky.

Best Sound Mixing

"Avatar" will probably squeak out a victory here over "Hurt Locker" and "Inglourious Basterds." It wouldn't be an unearned win.

Best Sound Editing

Ditto for this category. "Avatar" takes it home.

Best Original Score

The brilliant Michael Giacchino should win a long overdue Oscar for his eclectic work on Pixar's "Up." If James Horner's repetitive work in "Avatar" wins, I'm going to murder one of those giant blue Smurfs with my own bare hands.

Best Original Song

Randy Newman's "Princess and the Frog" songs will cancel each other out, leading the terrific "Weary Kind" from "Crazy Heart" to an easy victory.

Best Visual Effects

"Avatar" in a landslide.

Best Makeup

Best Picture snub "Star Trek" should at least go home with something.

Best Animated Short

"A Matter of Loaf and Death" stars the great claymation creations Wallace & Gromit, who have already won three Oscars for previous films. Why bet against them now?

Best Live Action Short

No idea. Let's go with the shortest title: "Kavi."

Best Documentary Short

"The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant." In a year celebrating populous fare like "Avatar," it makes sense to award the movie that sounds like/probably is the movie of our troubled times.

Ticket Stubs is brought to you by the Hayden Cinema 6 Theater. Tyler Wilson can be reached at twilson@cdapress.com. Visit www.NormdogEntertainment.com for more movie reviews and commentaries, including a post-Oscar wrap-up.