Concerns mount over dismal snowpack

Water observers say it's too early to panic, however

POST FALLS - The continued mild winter and low mountain snowpack are raising the eyebrows of water users.

"It is a matter of concern, but not a reason to panic yet," said Bob Haynes of the Idaho Department of Water Resources. "If we continue like this, we are set up for some problems with water."

Snowpack in the Coeur d'Alene and St. Joe basins are 50 to 55 percent of average, the lowest in the state, according to the latest survey by the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The poor snowpack across the state can be attributed to November, December and January's minimal precipitation. Based on historic data, when the snowpack is this low in February, it does not recover to even near normal levels by April 1.

"The weather pattern this year is typical during El Nino years with good snow levels in the Southwest U.S. and below normal levels in the Pacific Northwest," said Ron Abramovich, NRCS water supply specialist.

Haynes said the biggest concerns are with wildland fire season, fisheries and those who get their water from wells in the county.

"You may not get the recharge with individual water systems that you'd get in a good water year," he said.

However, there's no concern at this time with city residents and municipalities that get their drinking and irrigation water from the aquifer.

The low snowpack leads to less-than-optimal streamflow forecasts with the lowest flows predicted for the Spokane River at 45 to 50 percent of average and the highest for Clark Fork and Lake Pend Oreille inflow at 80 percent of average, the NRCS report states.

But Steve Shamion, president of the Spokane River Association, said that's actually good news for those who enjoy recreation on the river between Coeur d'Alene and Post Falls.

"The river may come up to its normal summer pool a month earlier this year compared to the past two years when we had all the snow if Avista closes the dam earlier," Shamion said. "This is actually welcomed for the people on the river because it could be an extra month of boating this year."

Abramovich said the reservoir storage is also above average across most of the state and that will help buffer impacts of the below-normal streamflows.

"Water managers will monitor snow levels, inflows and spring weather closely when the melt season starts to ensure reservoirs fill as much as possible," he said.

The snow depths are adequate for all types of winter recreation in the mountains, but a hazardous weak layer in the snowpack persists and has resulted in four avalanche fatalities in southern Idaho this winter, Abramovich said.

Avalanche conditions for the Selkirk and Cabinet Mountains are rated as moderate and for the St. Joe mountains considerable on wind-loaded aspects greater than 35 degrees above 5,000 feet, according to the Forest Service.

Hugh Imhof, Avista spokesman, said it's too early to say how power generation will be affected as snowpack continues to build until April and a wet spring would help.

"We have approximately 70 percent of normal snowpack on the Clark Fork drainage, which is where most of our hydro is generated," he said. "On the Spokane River drainage, it is around 53 percent, which could potentially result in some issues with lake levels next summer on Coeur d'Alene."

Imhof said it's always possible that a future rate request could be filed after a period where Avista needs to buy power at a higher cost than producing it itself.

"However, it would be speculative to predict what rates might do at this time," he said.

The complete water supply report is at www.id.nrcs.usda.gov/snow under the 'Water Supply' link.