Rising mortgage rates cause concern

Although our customary check of the Idaho Housing and Finance Association's website on Friday showed their rate held at 4.88 percent for a 30-year mortgage, other lenders are seeing increases in those rates. Freddie Mac's Mortgage Tracker reports the nation's average rate for last week has risen above 5 percent for the first time since April 2010.

This increase in mortgage rates could have an adverse impact on housing. Although 5 percent is hardly a rate to be leery of, any rate increase drives up the monthly payment of a home. Further increases could drive prices down as sellers of properties vie for entry level buyers who are watching their monthly budgets closely in order to qualify for more stringent loan requirements. Lower prices may be the only way for some buyers to afford a mortgage with a higher rate.

In the short term it could be that rising rates will spur more people to buy. Fear of increased rates can be very compelling, especially when the buyer's debt-to-income ratio (DTI) is marginal. Some buyers are already trying hard to pay off credit card and auto loans to meet the DTI requirements. An increase in mortgage interest rates could, once again, put their dreams out of reach.

Refinancing seems to have hit a lull too. Last summer, banks experienced a mini boom in refinancing that slowed dramatically when rates began rising. Mortgage applications nationally are down 59 percent from an August peak according to Zelman and Associates, a research analysis firm quoted in the Wall Street Journal.

Housing prices are still low however, and there are real estate bargains in land and commercial properties as well. Rates for capital, if you can get it, may not deter seasoned investors who remember much higher rates not so long ago, but the first-time buyers are bound to be a bit shy about mortgages should rates hit 6 percent as many believe will happen. "Six percent would do serious damage if it happened in a very short period of time," said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight.

Even 6 percent would be a bargain for homebuyers historically. Rates were in double digits through most of the 1980s and as high as 18 percent early in the decade and many of us still bought houses. It wasn't until 1991 that rates consistently stayed below 10 percent. At the peak of the housing bubble, the 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.76 percent.

"We're turning to a more normal mortgage rate environment, says Guy Cecala, publisher of the trade magazine Inside Mortgage Finance. "That pretty much means the 30-year in the 6 percent range. I don't think rates will be going down."

Our January figures showing a 37 percent increase in numbers of sales over last January gave us some optimism that the housing market had made a breakthrough. This second rise in interest rates in two consecutive weeks gives us cause for concern that our good start could lead to a slow finish.

We continue to monitor and will know soon what these increases, although modest by most standards, will mean to our market. As always, your Realtor has statistics at the ready and will help you make the important decisions about your real estate.

Trust an expert... call a Realtor. Call your Realtor or visit www.cdarealtors.com to search properties on the Multiple Listing Service or to find a Realtor member who will represent your best interests.

Kim Cooper is a real estate broker, Realtor and the spokesman for the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors. Kim and the association invite your feedback and input for this column. You may contact them by writing to the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors, 409 W. Neider, Coeur d'Alene, ID 83815 or by calling (208) 667-0664 with your questions or commentary.