Housing shortage — by the numbers

The housing crisis isn’t only local; it’s a national issue.

“If we don’t build it, they won’t come” has been floated in area conversations. What is happening in reality is they still come, but in higher income and age demographics. Even if in-migration stopped or flattened, the population that lives here grows up. So, without a focus on local worker housing, if we don’t build it … they will leave. 

Coeur d’Alene Economic Development Corporation released the 2023 population increases by age demographic. For the first time, population growth in the 75-84 age bracket has the largest percentage increase, at about 46%. 

The 30-44 age brackets show an average of about 36% increase. Population has decreased by about an average of 11% for 20-29 year-olds.

U.S. housing starts measured against a benchmark historic average (1995-2007) revealed the cumulative national housing deficit was more than 8.6 million units from 2008-2022. But other sources suggest housing shortages between 2.3 and 6.5 million for 2022. An exact estimate is difficult to determine.

There is a need for a minimum of nearly 5,000 homes in Kootenai County as of 2022, with 2023 coming in with projected building needs as well, according to the Census Bureau’s Building Permit Survey. Compared to the housing needs for current local workers, this represents the need to build an additional 1,500 homes per year above the current home permit volume. This includes all housing types, including rentals.

I’ve recently heard long-time locals profess that when they were first-time home buyers they couldn’t afford to live in Coeur d’Alene either. They had to move to Spirit Lake or Rathdrum to settle here and young homebuyers will have to make those sacrifices. 

Recent data proves things have changed. We as a nation did not catch up to home demands since the last recession. In-migration during Covid spiked dramatically. Home prices increased an unprecedented level. Although some may call it cyclical, most agree there won’t be a return to pre-pandemic prices or availability. 

A quick look at the Multiple Listing Service reveals that the inventory of houses on the market is rising slightly over previous years. However, a closer examination of the supply and demand shows that the market has adjusted to the demographic of the higher qualified buyer. 

Of the recent college graduates (even those with limited student loan debt), 80% don’t qualify for buying in Kootenai County, according to a county median income study by the University of Idaho. This includes child care workers, machinists, mental health and social workers, chefs and head cooks, and school teachers. 

Of the highest wage category, the lowest-end workers have an inventory of 8-12 homes in all of the county. This includes physical therapists, CEOs and sales managers. 

You can define “affordability” by using the local income by occupation and assuming housing costs being 30-35% of monthly expenses. Compare the result to what is regularly available at that price point, which is $410,000 or under. It not only confirms a deficit in housing inventory driving prices up, but that affordable houses are nearly nonexistent in job/wage categories that employ local workers.

There are multiple solutions in progress that can help preserve and provide inventory for local workers. I encourage you to review the solutions: ToolKit and Housing Reports at housingni.org and demographics data at CdaEdc.org.