Holiday shopping forecast looks merry

A fresh green Vanhoff's Garden Center wreath with a buffalo plaid bow will adorn Chrisdee Imthurn’s front door this holiday season, thanks to Girl Scout Troop 4923, which had friendly, festive Scouts on hand Friday at the Silver Lake Mall.

“It's so easy to buy online, but you want to support the local community,” said Imthurn, of Hauser.

Imthurn was out and about with friend Denise Lunderstadt of Post Falls. The ladies had a relaxing Black Friday morning, only starting their shopping adventures after 9 a.m.

“Sales have been going all week, so we slept in, drank coffee,” Lunderstadt said. 

Both commented how pleased they were to see the mall bustling with life.

“I make an effort to come out and buy in our local community to keep these stores open,” Imthurn said.

“I think there are more people out this year,” Lunderstadt said. “It feels like it.”

The National Retail Federation, the world’s largest retail trade association, is projecting retail sales to increase 3 to 4% over last year’s holiday season sales for a total of between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.

“The growth rate is expected to fall short of the pace of the last three years but is consistent with the average annual increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019,” the National Retail Federation reported in its November 2023 Monthly Economic Review. “And the projected total, which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail, would be a new record, topping the previous record of $929.5 billion set last year.”

The review suggests holiday sales will have a new set of dynamics this year as consumers are seeking more services and experiences than traditional goods and gift items. The shift of spending from goods to services is expected to affect holiday sales trends.

“Strong service spending has grown faster than goods spending and is now in line with pre-pandemic trends,” the National Retail Federation article said. “One concern is that money households spent on travel, entertainment-related events and restaurants this past summer may have pulled forward spending they would have done at the end of the year. On the other hand, a number of travel analysts say many Americans plan to travel over the holidays, which could also move spending further away from goods.”

Imthurn said she is buying less this shopping season.

“I’m buying more experiences where I’m going,” she said, “making memories instead of stuff.”

Her daughter-in-law would like someone to deep-clean her carpets, Imthurn said, so she is hoping to make that happen for Christmas.

Lindsey Jones, co-owner of the Loft 41 lash lounge, tanning and beauty boutique in Post Falls, said she is seeing the trend of service and experiential purchases.

“That’s what we’re marketing for,” she said. “We’re marketing toward gift card sales for our hat bar experience.”

She said she and her family are buying more experiences and higher-dollar necessities this year compared to previous years.

Jones’ daughter, Blakely Jones, 8, was enjoying her first Black Friday experience, although admittedly a little tired.

“There’s lots of people,” she said. “I’ve seen lots of Christmas decorations.”

National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a Nov. 8 article that the overall story for the 2023 holiday shopping season is that it looks very good. He said every retail holiday season since the COVID-19 pandemic has been unique, and that is expected again this year.

“The last few holiday shopping seasons have been filled with unmatched peculiarities for consumers and retailers alike,” Kleinhenz said. “In 2020, sales surged 9.1% year over year despite the challenges of COVID-19, and there was a significant move to shopping online as Americans stayed home. Sharply rising demand overcame supply chain bottlenecks for a record growth rate of 12.7% in 2021. And holiday sales in 2022 rose 5.4% as savings built up during the pandemic provided a buffer against rising inflation and online shopping continued but more consumers returned to stores.”

He said average households remain on relatively solid financial footing, despite pressures brought on by inflation that continues to be high, stringent credit conditions and higher interest rates.

“Recent revisions to government data indicate that consumers haven’t drawn down as much of their pandemic savings as believed earlier, and savings are still providing a buffer to support spending,” Kleinhenz said.

Memory Lane Gems in the Silver Lake Mall was a-sparkle with jewelry, vintage finds and cheerful holiday items waiting to be purchased and placed under the Christmas tree.

Business is good at the mall, said owner Lynn Rinker, whose store used to be in downtown Coeur d’Alene.

“We’re real happy seeing people up here, and Santa’s here,” she said. “That’s one big draw at the mall, Santa is always here.”

As a longtime jeweler and retailer with a number of friends and colleagues in the industry, Rinker said they are just not experiencing the reported sales increases felt in other sectors.

“People have been really careful what they buy,” she said. “I don’t see that.”

She said when it comes to spending, Idaho is a pretty conservative state.

“People here buy durable goods, things they can use, not quite as frivolous,” Rinker said.

Consumers are facing several headwinds in the final two months of 2023 that pose significant risks: Gas prices have been on the rise throughout much of 2023, credit card balances are higher and borrowing costs are on the rise, savings rates are down, elevated inflation persists, student loan payments are resuming and both job and wage growth are lessening, the National Retail Federation’s Monthly Economic Review states.

While it is uncertain how well the economy is truly performing, the National Retail Federation said it continues to move forward and defy predictions, proving to be more resilient than anticipated.

 Brooklynn Campbell with 6-month-old son Stetson and Lindsey Jones with 8-year-old daughter Blakely embark on a Black Friday shopping adventure at the Silver Lake Mall.
  

    Lynn Rinker, owner of Memory Lane Gems, is surrounded by festive holiday gifts and other treasures in her store Friday at the Silver Lake Mall.