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Cliff's Weather Gems

Posted: Sunday, May 04, 2008 - 08:30:54 pm PDT
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Cliff Harris

Is there such a thing as earthquake weather?

Not only was this past April one of the coldest, wettest and snowiest such periods in recorded history across the nation (more like a normal March, or even February in some cases), but there were a near-record number of potentially dangerous earthquakes, almost from coast-to-coast over the country.

A 4.2 magnitude quake shook Palm Springs, Calif., on May 1.

Fortunately, most of these quakes were of the small magnitude variety, including the recent swarm of temblors in the Reno, Nev., area in the past several weeks.

Residents have been warned, however, to "prepare for a major earthquake," much like the last big quake in the Reno region, a 6.1 magnitude, on April 14, 1914.

The strongest quake lately across North America rocked a large portion of the Midwestern U.S. on April 18, 2008. Huge skyscrapers in Chicago swayed during the 5.2 shaking. Nerves were rattled in cities from Des Moines, Iowa, to Atlanta, Ga. There were dozens of aftershocks.

Ironically, the Midwestern quake occurred exactly 102 years to the day after the powerful 7.8 magnitude (some estimate over 8 magnitude) of April 18, 1906.

That disastrous quake killed more than 3,000 people and injured 10,000 others in the San Francisco Bay area.

Damage totals exceeded $1 billion, mainly from fires, from Santa Rosa southward to San Jose. That would be more than $50 billion in today's inflated currency.

Following a damaging 6.3 earthquake in the Bay Area exactly a half century later in April 1956 that "threw people off their feet and houses off their foundations," I wrote my first article of my lengthy career for the school newspaper entitled, "Is there such a thing as earthquake weather?"

For decades, scientists and others wondered why approximately 65 percent of the most notable earthquakes nationwide were occurring in the spring and fall seasons and only about 35 percent in the winter and summer periods. In other words, are there earthquake seasons, much like hurricane, snow and tornado seasons? Maybe yes, maybe no.

It may merely be coincidental, but all of the earthquakes that I remember while living in California, Vermont and the Inland Northwest occurred either in October in the fall or April in the spring, mostly in April, and usually during, or just after, prolonged dry spells.

Recently, in April 2001, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake struck interior New England, damaging our home in Jericho, Vt. Sand was pushed by the temblor into our basement, almost collapsing our heating system on the north wall. It was abnormally warm and dry in Vermont that spring, and very windy.

Following an extremely long period of drought in 1988 and 1989, on Oct. 17, 1989, a strong 7.1 quake again struck the San Francisco Bay Area during the World Series at the start of Game 3 with the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants in Candlestick Park just south of the city. Dozens of people died when several bridges and overpasses collapsed onto traffic just after the rush hour. Millions across the U.S. and around the world witnessed this disastrous earthquake on television.

In this case, it was steroid king, Jose Canseco, who was thrown off his feet. (Perhaps, he was already "Juiced?")

Locally, in my four decades of living in Kalispell and Whitefish, Mont., Hayden Lake and now Coeur d'Alene, I've only barely felt a couple of earthquakes -- one in the 1970s in Whitefish and another in the early 1990s in Hayden Lake.

One of the main reasons I've chosen to live and die in this beautiful Camelot of ours, is that we don't have many earthquakes, or severe storms for that matter. This is a weather-blessed, generally peaceful place.

Tornadoes are rare. There are no hurricanes and very few paralyzing blizzards. I love Coeur d'Alene!

North Idaho weather review and long-range weather outlook

No other April locally since at least 1895, probably longer, had so many days with measurable snowfall -- 10 to be exact -- as the recently-expired month. April 1932 observed seven snowy days. The normal is less than two. Last April, in 2007, there was only a single day with measurable amounts of snow -- a puny 0.8 inches.

April 2008 overall gauged a healthy 7.5 inches of the white stuff, just behind April 1920's 8.2 inches and April 1932's 8 inches.

April was likewise the third coldest such period on record in Coeur d'Alene and many other parts of North Idaho. Only April 1936 and April 1952 were more frigid than in 2008, a period of supposed global warming.

The month's coldest reading was 21 degrees on April 2. On April 21, a full month into the official spring season, our daytime high on Player Drive was just 38 degrees, the coldest maximum locally ever observed so late in the season and barely a week after we saw an almost summerlike, near-record 77 degrees on Sunday, April 13, the month's warmest reading.

Total precipitation during April was slightly above normal at 1.79 inches. The annual total of 12.93 inches, however, was much higher than usual for the initial third of the year, the normal four-month precipitation being 9.49 inches.

The 76 days this 2007-08 winter season, which ends June 30, with measurable snow easily topped the previous mark of 60 such days in 1915-16, which was later tied in 1973-74.

In answering a subscriber's question, yes, Bill, there has been a measurable snowfall during the month of May in Coeur d'Alene.

Two inches of the white stuff was measured downtown on my Eighth birthday, May 6, 1950. Believe it or not, we also had an inch of snow on that day in chilly Upstate New York, where I was living at the time near Auburn.

I don't see any measurable snow this May below 3,000 feet, but I do predict several snowy days in the nearby higher mountains. When warmer weather does finally arrive in the high country later this month into early to mid-June, it could mean some additional minor to moderate lowland flooding as the record late-season snowpacks melt, especially if the warmer temperatures are accompanied by some torrential, thunderstorm-related heavy downpours. Only time will tell.

When Randy and I lived in Vermont in 2001, he produced a short series on earthquakes for the Northeast that includes the big quakes in San Francisco. To view his series, go to: www.LongRangeWeather.com.

I'll have a detailed summer of 2008 North Idaho weather outlook in next week's issue of "Gems." Stay tuned.


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well wrote on May 14, 2008 1:09 PM:

" According to this, it's a good thing that McCain has repudiated all the warming deniers!

*******************************

A landmark new climate study released today reports that global warming is already changing the life cycles of thousands of animals and plants as well as hundreds of physical systems worldwide.

It documents rapid glacier melts in North America, South America and Europe; trees and plants sprouting leaves much earlier in the spring in Europe, Asia and North America; permafrost melting in Asia; and changes in bird migration patterns across Europe, North America and Australia, all in response to rising global temperatures.

While previous studies have looked at single phenomena or smaller areas, this is a new analysis on a continental scale looking at data that had not been previously assembled together in one spot, says lead author Cynthia Rosenzweig, a scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

By analyzing data from each of the Earth's seven continents and the oceans, the study paints a clear picture of a world that's been undergoing rapid transformation in just the past few decades due to climate change.

"Humans are influencing climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the warming world is causing impacts on physical and biological systems attributable at the global scale," Rosenzweig says. "These are things that are happening now, not projections of future changes." "

local res wrote on May 13, 2008 9:11 AM:

" An you still wonder if MCcain is little more than a Republican in name only. What a Joke!!!!!! "

to Politicians wrote on May 13, 2008 8:38 AM:

" Yep, there is simply no one a conservative could feel comfortable voting for - time to sit one out, I guess. "

Politicians wrote on May 13, 2008 8:24 AM:

" McCain's comments should not surprise anyone. With very few exceptions, all politicians are members of the Inconvenient Troop. Of those in DC probably about 80% of the Republicans are Chicken Littles and 108% of the Democrats are. Their mantra is, "Don't worry about any facts, just make sure there is something to tax." "

well McCain believes wrote on May 12, 2008 6:28 PM:

" Here is apiece from a speech McCain just gave talking about his belief in global warming and how only the gov't can fix it. You Repubs sure got you a conservative this year!

"Whether we call it "climate change" or "global warming," in the end we're all left with the same set of facts. The facts of global warming demand our urgent attention, especially in Washington. Good stewardship, prudence, and simple commonsense demand that we to act meet the challenge, and act quickly...

We have many advantages in the fight against global warming, but time is not one of them. Instead of idly debating the precise extent of global warming, or the precise timeline of global warming, we need to deal with the central facts of rising temperatures, rising waters, and all the endless troubles that global warming will bring... To lead in this effort, our government must strike at the source of the problem -- with reforms that only Congress can enact and the president can sign... For the market to do more, government must do more by opening new paths of invention and ingenuity. And we must do this in a way that gives American businesses new incentives and new rewards to seek, instead of just giving them new taxes to pay and new orders to follow. The most direct way to achieve this is through a system that sets clear limits on all greenhouse gases, while also allowing the sale of rights to excess emissions. And this is the proposal I will submit to the Congress if I am elected president -- a cap-and-trade system to change the dynamic of our energy economy."

John McCain "

Hey Mo wrote on May 12, 2008 12:44 PM:

" The "scientific facts" you refer to have never been proved outside a computer model designed to give the answers the designer was looking for. Don't blame Cliff for influencing any independent-brained individuals for disbelieving the Chicken Littles you have bought into. There has never been any debate allowed on this subject once ALGORE and his Inconvenient Troops came up with the THEORY, they labeled any dissenter as a fascist. On the contrary, no debate = autocracy. "

Joe wrote on May 11, 2008 6:57 AM:

" No, Valerie, you are incorrect about the premise that a major earthquake is "due" here.
Idaho has more earthquakes than almost anywhere in the country. Over 1,000 register every day, per The National Geological Survey. Precisely because of that, we never get the "big one", because the pressure gets relieved. "

Mo wrote on May 7, 2008 4:11 PM:

" Have you seen the poll on the front page? Are you proud of yourself for influencing people to disbelieve scientific fact. Congrats sir. I propose that you next bring back the view that the sun revolves around the earth. "

Valerie Scrafford wrote on May 5, 2008 6:53 AM:

" Hi Cliff, Not to burst your bubble about this beautiful, peaceful, seeminly safe area we live in, but State Farm Insurance Co., several years ago, put together an earthquake preparedness program for area schools which pointed out that we live amongst a major fault line. Thus, a major earthquake in our area is highly likely. Valerie "

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