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| Cliff Harris |
A hot, dry summer doesn't always mean a cold, snowy winter
The past two summer seasons in North Idaho combined were the second driest and hottest such periods on record locally in Coeur d'Alene since the inception of local recordkeeping in 1895.
Only the fire-ravaged summers of 1967 and 1968 were hotter and drier than 2006 and 2007. As I mentioned in my last "Gems" article, parts of neighboring eastern Washington and western Montana experienced their hottest and driest summers on record in 2007.
But, despite what many area old-timers claim, a blisteringly hot summer doesn't always yield a cold and snowy subsequent winter season. Sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean regions seem to dictate what kind of winter we'll see far more than the previous summer's weather patterns.
For example, out of the previous ten hottest summers on record, including 2006 but not 2007, only five out of 10 following winter seasons could be described as unusually snowy. The other five winters, especially during the warm El Nino sea-surface temperature events, tended to see far less snowfall than what is considered to be the normal of 66.7 inches of the white stuff for the season in town.
One extremely hot and dry summer in the midst of the infamous dust bowl period of the early- to mid-1930s was followed, in turn, by the almost totally open winter of 1933-34, which had the least snowfall on record, a puny 11.2 inches between October 1933 and May of 1934.
Only a few years before, just after the stock market crash of October 1929, the winter of 1929-30 gauged a mere 17.8 inches of snow, more than half of that meager total being measured in January of 1930.
More recently, the dry and cold Winter of 2000-01 gauged just 44.1 inches of snow in Coeur d'Alene. Ironically, that particular winter season, global warming or no global warming, holds the all-time record in town for the most days in a row with at least an inch of snow on the ground.
For an incredble 132-straight days, from Nov. 8, 2000, to March 6, 2001, we never saw bare ground even once in downtown Coeur d'Alene. Spokane likewise set a new mark for continuous snowcover at 117 days in 2000-01.
The five winter seasons with more snowfall than normal since 1895 that followed record hot and dry summers occurred mostly during cool and wet La Nina sea-surface temperature cycles like the current strengthening event in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean.
These snowy winters included: 1931-32, 1934-35, 1968-69, 1973-74 and last winter in 2006-07, when we measured a healthy 80.1 inches at my station on Player Drive, 48.8 inches of which fell in the 60-day span from January 1 to February 28, 2007.
The snowiest winter ever recorded on the heels of a hot and dusty summer season was observed nearly four decades ago in 1968-69.
Area residents remember playing football, basketball and even some golf on a very balmy Christmas Day in 1968, which followed an extremely dry, fire-ravaged late summer and early autumn period in the Inland Northwest.
But, shortly before New Year's Eve, Old Man Winter arrived with a vengeance for an extended six-week visit to beautiful Camelot, as I call our award-winning town.
January of 1969 became Coeur d'Alene's snowiest month ever with an almost unbelievable 82.4 inches of the white stuff -- nearly seven feet of total accumulation -- surpassing the seasonal normal of 66.7 inches for an entire winter season by 15.7 inches, more than the totals for either of the open winters of 1929-30 or 1933-34. Some parts of town in mid-January of 1969 reported snowpacks above the window sills!
Okay, what does all this mean for the fast-approaching, La Nina-affected winter of 2007-08? Well, maybe everything, or maybe nothing.
Right now, in this pre-Halloween period, I'm predicting, depending of course on one's elevation, approximately 20 to 40 percent more snowfall than usual this winter with even a few sub-zero mornings.
It's been quite chilly already this early fall season in our part of the country, the opposite extreme to the record heat seen this October east of the Mississippi River. Moderate to heavy snows fell this past week in the higher mountains of Idaho, Washington, Oregon, northern California, Utah and Wyoming.
Next week in "Gems," we'll not only include a free 2008 North Idaho weather calendar, but I'll issue as well my annual city-by-city 2007-08 winter snowfall predictions. Stay tuned.
Brief North Idaho 90-day weather outlook
It was so chilly across the Inland Northwest in the past several days that some areas as low as 3,000 feet in elevations reported snow rather than the normal mid-October rains.
High temperatures in parts of eastern Oregon and west-central Idaho remained in the November-like upper 30s and lower 40s late in the week.
We actually had a few large, wet snowflakes mixed-in with the rain showers last Thursday afternoon, when the cold front went through North Idaho dropping temperatures back into the upper 30s.
As I write this article late Thursday evening just prior to my favorite TV show "Survivor," we had received a much-needed half inch of precipitation between late Monday and 8 p.m. on Thursday at my station in northwest Coeur d'Alene. At least another half inch of moisture was anticipated locally before high pressure ended the rainfall late in the weekend.
There is still the chance of a brief pre-Halloween period of warmer and drier, almost "Indian Summer" weather conditions, reaching North Idaho and the surrounding regions of the Inland Northwest.
But, in the meantime, I'll continue trying to ripen those late-season tomatoes in the garage as Ms. Bishop recommends. They are turning red, but they're likewise splitting ... not good.
There is a silver lining, however, to this wet weather regime. The chances of an early ski season, or one that at least arrives on time, are very good! That's one of the benefits of a strengthening cool and damp La Nina in the tepid waters of the Pacific Ocean. As readers of this column know, I hate snow-robbing El Ninos!
One last thing, be sure to check out the Post Fall's Haunted House. Randy Mann helped out with the attraction and will be dressed up Thursday and Friday. (Randy, you don't need a costume in order to frighten the kiddies!)
well wrote on Oct 24, 2007 8:03 AM: