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| Cliff Harris |
Ready or not, here are 'city-by-city' winter snowfall predictions
To answer a question that I received this past week, YES, I certainly do believe that future weather trends will develop about 70 percent of the time along the same basic lines of previous analogous (similar) patterns or cycles.
This is the science of climatology, my friends, pure and simple. Remember, as I said a couple of weeks ago, "there is NOTHING NEW under the sun." And, the sun is our big weather-maker.
Solar cycles (sunspots) and the current sea-surface ocean warming (El Nino) should combine to give us about 10 to 15 percent LESS SNOWFALL than usual this upcoming winter season of 2006-07 across the so-called Inland Empire, including North Idaho.
Historically, dating back to near 1880, the northwestern corner of the U.S. and much of southwestern Canada have tended to be both WARMER and DRIER than usual, particularly during the weaker El Nino events. Many of the Pacific storms follow either the subtropical or maritime polar upper-level jet streams into California and the arid Southwest, leaving us high and dry like we were recently during the driest summer season since at least 1895 in the Coeur d'Alene area. This likewise happened locally during the mostly 'open' winter of 2004-05 featuring a very weak El Nino.
But, during powerful El Ninos like the ones which occurred in 1957-58, 1982-83, 1997-98 and other years, we often join California in being WARMER and WETTER than normal with high mountain snows and mostly rain at the lower elevations below 3,000 feet.
I still believe, as I stated in 'Gems' when I issued my 180-day outlooks through March of 2007 on Sept. 25, that the month of January will be the SNOWIEST period, and the COLDEST as well, of this entire winter season, particularly at the lower elevations. Probably more the half of all the snow that does fall this winter of 2006-07 will be in January. The normal January snowfall in Coeur d'Alene is 21.2 inches and the annual total is 66.7 inches. I actually see about 29 inches of the white stuff being gauged at my station on Player Drive. Some of the normally snowiest cities and towns like Sandpoint, Priest Lake, Wallace, Twin Lakes, Hayden Lake, Kellogg and Rathdrum may measure as much as 40 to 50 inches of snow this January. The mountain ski areas may see upwards of 80 to 100 inches during the 31-day period.
But, here's the rub. All of the months that normally produce bountiful snows on both sides of January may turn out to be drier and warmer than usual, especially at the lower elevations, much like the dismal winter two years ago in 2004-05, which saw the most SNOWFREE FEBRUARY ever observed in our part of the country. That's when the skiers "booed me in church" and Marty gave me such a tough time, in his own words, "kicking me under several buses."
So, as of the end of October in this rather mild autumn of 2006, here are my latest predicted 'city-by-city' winter of 2006-07 snowfall totals through the end of the season next June 30:
1. Priest Lake: 88 inches.
2. Sandpoint: 86 inches.
3. Wallace: 84 inches.
4. Twin Lakes East: 82 inches.
5. Hayden Lake (above 2,400 feet): 75 inches.
6. Kellogg: 71 inches.
7. Hope: 70 inches.
8. Rathdrum: 69 inches.
9. Hayden (town): 64 inches.
10. Athol/Garwood: 61 inches.
11. Coeur d'Alene NW (my station on Player Drive): 57 inches.
12. Harrison: 53 inches.
13. Coeur d'Alene (lake): 49 inches.
14. Post Falls: 47 inches.
15. Spokane (South Hill): 43 inches.
16. Spokane Valley: 41 inches.
17. Bayview: 39 inches.
18. Spokane International Airport: 39 inches.
Remember, folks, I'm NOT IN PRODUCTION weatherwise (or otherwise) ... I'm IN SALES! And, I reserve the right to revise my snowfall outlooks, either up or down, if sea-surface temperature patterns change in the Pacific Ocean regions.
90-DAY NORTH IDAHO WEATHER OUTLOOK
As I wrote this 90-day outlook early Saturday, Oct. 28, I see a very chilly Halloween on Tuesday with a few snow flurries likely, even at the lower elevations, as the cold front arrives late Sunday evening into Monday morning from the frigid Yukon regions (late note: a trace of snow did fall as of press time Sunday evening).
Afternoon highs early this week will barely exceed 40 degrees with morning low readings dipping into the mid to upper teens. This predicted HARD FREEZE, as I said last week, will be "the kiss of death" for my strawberries and flowers still holding on to life in the backyard garden.
This MAJOR WEATHER CHANGE, which is arriving precisely on schedule (mine), should likewise bring us some badly-needed moisture. I was forced on Friday to deeply water our 33 trees, which were suffering from the effects of our all-time record mid-June through late October drought.
Our total precipitation for the 4 1/2 months combined since June 15 on Player Drive stood at a puny 2.05 inches as of noon on Saturday, Oct. 28. The normal for the period is 6.63 inches, more than THREE TIMES what we've received during this worst drought locally since at least 1895, probably longer.
In 2005, the same 135-day span gauged 7.90 inches of moisture. The all-time record was set during soggy 1997, when a whopping 12.43 inches fell from mid-June through late October. The previous driest such period was the 2.35 inches, which was measured in fire-ravaged 1910.
As things now stand, El Nino or no El Nino, I still see a rather WET and CHILLY November and very early December with some snow flurries, even at the lower elevations, at times. Then, it should turn DRIER and milder than usual again for one 28-day lunar cycle into early January. The following 28-day phase, however, from the 'full moon' of January 3, 2007, through the 'full moon' of February 1 may turn out to be the COLDEST and SNOWIEST part of the entire winter of 2006-07. More details next week.
