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| Cliff Harris |
Drought in areas of western U.S. at historic levels
On Thursday, June 17, the U.S. Geological Survey confirmed what I've been saying for months now. The current parching drought gripping the western half of the U.S., especially in the Desert Southwest and the Colorado River Basin, is worse than the so-called "Dust Bowl" years. In fact, "it's the biggest U.S. drought in at least 500 years!" (My work says it's more than 1,000 years, all the way back to 987 A.D.)
Robert Webb, lead author of the report, said late last week, "now I'm completely convinced of the true severity of this massive drought."
The Colorado River has been locked in a pattern of extreme dryness now since June of 1998, more than six full years ago, when the last warm and wet major El Ni-o ended.
The Colorado River is an all-important source of water for millions of people across the West, particularly for thirsty residents and agricultural concerns alike in Southern California and Arizona.
Various environmental groups say that this June 17 report reinforces the dire need to figure out a better way to manage the Colorado River before area reservoirs, including Lakes Powell and Mead, run dry.
The recent report said that the drought has produced the lowest flow in the Colorado River Basin on record with an adjusted annual average flow of a puny "5.4 million acre-feet" at Lees Ferry, Ariz., during the 24 months ending in December of 2003.
By comparison, during the "Dust Bowl" period between 1930 and 1937, the annual flow "averaged about 10 million acre-feet," the June 17 report said.
As we mentioned in one of my columns from early June of this year, according to tree-ring reconstructions of the Colorado River plus various river and lake sediment core samples from the region, the previous lowest five-year average of water flow was 8.84 million acre-feet in the years between 1590 and 1594. An even lower estimate than now or the early 1590s possibly occurred around the years of 982-987 A.D., if we are to believe the area's tree ring statistics from the study of dendrochronology.
Both the 1590s and the 980s were likewise extremely dry in the Pacific Northwest from northern California northward to British Columbia along the west coast inland to the western slopes of the Rockies including, of course, our own Spokane/Coeur d'Alene "Inland Empire" regions of eastern Washington and North Idaho. It was a tad wetter at this time in northwestern Montana and southern British Columbia, but still a severe drought scenario existed.
More updates later.
LOCAL LONG-RANGE WEATHER OUTLOOK (90 DAYS AND BEYOND)
Our long-predicted return to the much HOTTER and DRIER side of the climatological scale arrived precisely on schedule with the official start to the summer season last Monday, June 21.
The mercury rocketed to above the century mark at Omak, Walla Walla and Hanford, Washington, where the high was a blistering 105 degrees during the middle to the end of last week. Lewiston soared to 101 with the Spokane Valley, Hayden and Coeur d'Alene areas seeing toasty mid to upper 90s. It was in the lower 90s elsewhere in the region into parts of western Montana.
Temperatures turned a bit cooler over the "Ironman" weekend. There were likewise some needed showers and thunderstorms to dampen the dust and "water the weeds" along I-90 and U.S. 95.
Looking a bit farther down the meteorological roadway, Meteorologist Randy Mann and I still envision a typically warm and dry summer season through the middle of August with a few afternoon or evening thundershowers, mostly near the mountains, but occasionally drifting into the valley locations of the so-called "Inland Empire."
There should be at least a couple of "Sholeh Days" above 100 degrees next month in the region. Remember, Mrs. Patrick "hates the Houston, Texas-type heat." Most afternoons, however, will be in the lower 80s to lower 90s, except during the relatively brief periods of egg-frying heat.
By mid to late August into the month of October, though, we will see some unusually WET and COOL weather developing again across the Pacific Northwest, including eastern Washington, North Idaho and, particularly, western Montana, where EARLY FROSTS and FREEZES will be likely in the higher valleys of the Treasure State.
We're still expecting that EARLY SNOWS will whiten the nearby mountains above 5,000 feet at times between mid to late September and Halloween. By late October or early November, some lower valley locations, like last year, could see measurable amounts of the white stuff. Stay tuned....
