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| Cliff Harris |
Solar storms (sunspots) ... the key to climate Earth
Last week, we featured the climate history of this planet found in tree rings and the northern Scandinavian lakes and bogs called "varves".
This time around, we'll take a rather brief look at SUNSPOTS, which are storms that intermittently break out on the gaseous surface envelope of the sun, sometimes seen with the naked eye.
The climate of Planet Earth is directly affected by changes which take place on the sun. Temperatures worldwide are dependent upon the precise degree or angle that the sun's rays hit the particular location. Also, as the heat from the sun varies from year-to-year and decade-to-decade, precipitation patterns likewise shift, often from drought-to-flood cycles like we've seen so frequently since the late 1960s, a very "active" sunspot period.
The sun is directly responsible for the semi-permanent high and low barometric pressure areas on earth so vital to rainfall patterns in the world's primary food-producing regions in the temperate zones, including the U.S., Canada, Europe, Asia, Africa, South America and Australia. Let's add Russia to the list.
Sunspot cycles go back to before the time of Christ in China. Of course, these were only the spots that could be seen with the naked eye. With the invention of the telescope in 1755, even much smaller solar storms have been made visible.
The typical sunspot cycle in the past 250 years or so has averaged 11.2 years. But, like recently, they tend to vary from time to time in length. These variations, in my opinion, are a definite KEY to sudden climatic changes on this planet along with other cycles of volcanic activity, sea-surface water temperature events like EL NINO, LA NINA and the current prolonged LA NADA in the Pacific Ocean regions and various long-term climatic cycles that seem to be converging on this time in history.
Following an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures worldwide, most recently referred to as "global warming," a very intense outbreak of sunspot occurs, much like what we've seen in the past couple of years, resulting in global disturbances in communications and more frequent occurrences of the so-called NORTHERN LIGHTS, the aurora borealis.
A sunspot MAXIMA cycle usually precedes a rather pronounced COOLER and WETTER period, which often replaces times of extended HEAT and DROUGHT.
It appears that this expiring, soggy Spring of 2004 may be heading indeed into that expected cooler and damper time span. The month of May broke scores of precipitation records from here in the Inland Northwest southeastward into the water-logged Midwest Corn and Soybean Belt, which was likewise ravaged by severe tornadic activity, especially in Iowa.
BUT, I should also mention that the precipitation patterns become very "fickle" following a sunspot maxima. Cool, wet springs and autumns are usually interrupted by a short but VERY HOT summer season. What about this summer? See my 90-day outlook.
MAY WEATHER REVIEW AND LOCAL 90-DAY
OUTLOOK
May was certainly another month of wild weather EXTREMES across the region.
The month's warmest reading of 79 degrees occurred on May 1. The coolest temperature was a frosty 31 degrees on May 14. On May 22, the mercury only reached 50 degrees for a new record low maximum reading for the date. There were eleven afternoons under 60 degrees in May, two more such days than during April, very unusual to say the least.
As far as precipitation during May was concerned, all but .49 inches of the 4.24 inches for the month fell after May 18. This monthly total was more than two inches above the normal May precipitation in Coeur d'Alene of 2.21 inches. Measurable rain was gauged on all but May 24 during the last 13 days of the month. Some lowland flooding occurred following two severe thunderstorms on May 22 and again on May 26. Those two days alone nearly matched the normal monthly total with 2.11 inches, 1.13 inches and .98 inches to be exact. Hail also fell.
But, as Meteorologist Randy Mann and I expected, much WARMER and DRIER weather returned with the arrival of the early June "full moon" cycle.
On Thursday, June 3, we observed our first 80 degree afternoon of the season at my station in Coeur d'Alene. Sweltering 90s were reported in parts of southwestern Idaho, southeastern Washington and eastern Oregon, where severe drought conditions still persist.
Looking ahead weatherwise for the next 90 days or so into early September's Labor Day weekend, we foresee occasional periods of warm to downright HOT temperatures on-and-off through the summer months. But, overall, it shouldn't be either as hot or as dry as the fire-ravaged Summer of 2003, when nearby Glacier Park went "up in smoke".
Our hottest weather this summer should occur in early to mid July around the "full moon" phase. TRIPLE-DIGIT readings, those dreaded "Sholeh Days", will be short-lived this time around. There will, however, be at least 18 afternoons this summer season above the 90 degree mark. That's still fewer than the 26 scorching days last summer.
Cooling showers and thunderstorms will be more frequent this summer in the region. In fact, the weather after the expected hot "full moon" cycle of early August should turn both cooler and wetter than usual into early to mid October. This should be good news for the second half of the 2004 fire season despite some weather-related harvest interruptions.
BRIEF MOVIE REVIEW OF "THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW"
Yes, I liked the movie, especially the lavish special effects, which alone were worth the price of a ticket to see them on the big screen.
As far as the climatological accuracy of the film, they've taken "a few grains of truth" and turned them into "Long Beach." Seeing the Hollywood sign destroyed by an F-5 tornado was my favorite scene, except perhaps for the New York City tidal wave. Go see it!
